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Trade Closed: 2011-8-8 00:42

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

Aaah, it’s been a while since I had this giddy feeling. My short EUR/USD trade turned out to be a winner, reeling me in 163 pips and a 0.5% gain. Whoohoo!

As I expected, the ECB seemed to have sounded dovish in its interest rate decision. According to Pip Diddy, the ECB announced that it would continue buying bonds to support financially-troubled EZ countries. On top of that, ECB President Trichet said that the economic uncertainty has increased over the last few weeks.

These statements might have dampened hopes for further rate hikes and consequently sent the euro tumbling down the charts, hitting my profit target at 1.4150 along the way. Yippee!

Total Gain: +163 pips / +0.5%

Although I’m really happy about how my trade worked out, I wish I had more courage to jump in at market with a full position. I only gained 0.5% because my second position, which I left at 1.4380, didn’t get triggered. But oh well! Maybe I’ll get the chance to do just that next time when I spot a really nice setup.

Trade Idea: 2011-8-4 1:41

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

They say the only way you can really get over a heartbreak is to find a new love. I hope the same concept can be applied to trading too. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that I can finally get rid of all the negative vibes that came from the disappointment over my GBP/USD trade with a short on EUR/USD.

You might be thinking that my trade is against the trend… If we’re talking about the short-term trend, then I’d agree with you. But looking back a couple of days, it is clear that the hasy been making “lower highs” and “lower lows.”

In addition, it just bounced off resistance at the falling trend line and Stochastic is inching out of the overbought territory. I believe we’ll see the pair drop back down again.

The ECB’s interest rate decision will be vital in determining whether my trade will work out or not. The market widely expects the bank to keep rates unchanged at 1.50%, and with the recent “bad” data from the euro zone, I think we’ll hear a bearish ECB.

The bad data I’m talking about are the euro zone consumer price index and the purchasing manufacturing indices . The most recent report showed that the inflation dropped to 2.5% from 2.7%. Meanwhile the euro zone PMIs came out worse than expected.

When I saw that pair was already ticking lower, I immediately pulled the trigger and sold the pair at market and got in at 1.4313. I’m not too sure if this is a top yet, so I decided to also place another sell order near the week open at 1.4380.

My stop for both positions is above the 1.4400 major psychological handle at 1.4430. Ultimately, I’m aiming for support at the bottom of the channel, around the most recent lows at 1.4150.

Alright, that’s my trade idea for the week. Hope it works out this time!



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