The Dollar pulled a nice 180 today after it got its butt kicked yesterday and the Yen finally put up a fight! The Yen has been getting crushed for a while now and its weakness is becoming a concern. German officials are saying that the weak Yen may be a topic for the next G-7 meeting. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next. Now onto the charts…
The Euro has dropped (once again) down below its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart and is currently hovering around 2960. 4 hr. stochastics are still trending down and is almost in oversold territory while the daily stochastics are trending up even with today’s Euro drop. Today’s drop was a nice bounce from the 38% Fib line on the daily chart but the question now is where will it go next? I don’t see any real targets close by at this point. It’s almost as if the Euro is just floating right now. If it goes up, then look for another test of the 38% Fib line, and if it goes down, then look for the Euro to hit 2900 and maybe even the daily 100 SMA which is currently around 2880. I think the long trade is the safer bet. I’d like to go long if the pair can break 3000 again and set a target for the 38% Fib line. The reason I like this trade is because if the pair does break 3000 it also has effectively broken its 50 EMA and 100 SMA on the 4hr chart. I figure if it can break through all 3 of those potential resistance points then it’s got a good chance at least making it back to the 38% Fib line.
Buy at 3010; Stop Loss= 2990; Target= 3030; Target 2= 3050; Target 3= 3080
Yesterday I said the Cable could easily reach its 38% Fib line in one day even though at the time when I wrote my post it was still 150 pips away from that. That’s one of the reasons I love this pair. It’s got great volatility! For now the pair seems to be resting right at the 38% Fib line and the next move is to wait and see if there will be a bounce or break of this support line. 4 hr. stochastics are in oversold territory while daily stochastics are trending down and showing plenty of room for more selling. I think if the pair can break its previous daily low, then there is a good chance it will move all the way to 9600. I’d like to short the Cable at 9640 with a stop above the 38% Fib line and set my sight for 9600.
Sell at 9640; Stop Loss= 9680; Target= 9600; Target 2= 9575; Target 3= 9510
The Swissy ended up breaking back up past its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart and got real close to 2500 like I thought it would. But we’ve seen this song and dance before. The Swissy makes it look like it’s going to take out 2500 and rally higher but then it ends up falling right back down below it. Will the same thing happen again? Well daily stochastics are still trending down and show plenty of selling power left while the 4hr stochastics are just starting to head into overbought territory. So my prediction? I think we’ll see what we’ve been seeing…the Swissy will spike above 2500 and then fall right back down. Of course I could be wrong, but based on the technicals this is what "should" happen. Now while you think I’d go short again if the pair could break that 50 EMA on the 4hr chart, I’m going to hold off this time because the 100 SMA has crept up above 2400 and is now at 2414. That could be another support area so targeting 2400 would be more dangerous since the 100 SMA could serve as a potential road block.
Well the Yen finally took back some ground against the Dollar but ended up right back above 121.00. Coincidentally the pair found support at its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart. Stochastics on both the 4hr and daily chart are trending down so the Yen might still have some fight left in it. I’m still iffy about trading this pair but if it can make a clean break of its 50 EMA, then it will most likely fall to 120.50.