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Well, it was fun while it lasted! Thanks to the recent yen strength, I’m finally off the USD/JPY rally train!

Thanks to profit-taking ahead of the NFP report, weak Nikkei performance, and yen strength, USD/JPY finally broke its 100 SMA support on the 1-hour chart. I ended up opening 4 positions and a 0.61% trade. I’m kinda bummed that I wasn’t able to exit at the right time though. Boo!

A couple of things that I learned:

1. Be consistent with entry parameters- I could have maximized my gains if I had only entered at retracements at the 100 SMA instead of adding positions at breakouts.

2. Be consistent with position sizes – I thought that I was adapting to the environment by getting creative with my position sizes but it only gave me headaches when it’s time to compute overall gains and losses.

3. Watch out for sentiment-changing evens – The trend is our friend…until it ends. I probably should have closed all positions at the beginning of the month (and NFP week!).

Position 1 (0.50%): Closed with +145 pips
Position 2 (0.25%): Closed with +60 pips
Position 3 (0.50%): Closed with -40 pips
Position 4 (0.25%): Closed with -70 pips

Total: +95 pips, +0.61%

Hopefully, I’ll get a couple more trades like this (but with better results) before the year ends. On to the next cool setup!

Trade Update:

While my friends are marking their Black Friday purchases, I’m marking my trade orders!


I think I can still take advantage of USD/JPY’s relentless uptrend by adding to my orders. I’m thinking of risking another 0.50% at 102.30, which is above the top weekly ATR and yesterday’s high. If my order gets triggered, I will move the stop of my second position to 101.60 (just below the 100 SMA). This would put my total risk at +0.60%. Not bad, huh?

Position 1 (0.25%): Closed for a 0.91% gain
Position 2 (0.25%): Stop moved to a 0.06% gain
Position 3 (0.50%): Not yet triggered

What do you think? Should I just close all my trades or should I keep my orders? Happy Thanksgiving, guys!

Trade Update:

Time to lock in profits ahead of the weekend!


Thank goodness I was able to jump in on JPY’s selloff! Since I entered a long position early this week the pair has moved above 100 pips or so above my entry. But as much as I’d like to buy and hold, I also think that taking some profits ahead of the weekend would be a good idea.

I took out half of my 0.50% risk at 101.30 when I saw that there was some hesitation at the level. I kept the remaining half though and placed my stop loss to 100.30 (just above the 100 SMA support that we’re looking at).

I also added orders worth 0.50% of my account at 100.50 because I really think that there’s still room for USD/JPY to rise now that it has broken above the triangle on the daily chart. I think the 50% Fib area is a pretty good retracement entry.

That’s it! I probably won’t be touching my orders until next week but for now, I’ll just watch closely to see if there are any strong moves that could invalidate my trade idea. What do you think?

Trade Update:

After days of staying on the sidelines, I’m finally taking a chance on USD/JPY!


On a technical basis, the pair has just bounced from the rising trend line, which is close to the strong 200 SMA support on the 1-hour chart. Oh, and holler if you also see the bullish divergence!

Fundamentally I think that the dollar still has room to rise against the yen especially since a couple of FOMC members are still scheduled to give speeches this week.

The BOJ will also take center stage in a few days and I hear from Pip Diddy that nobody is expecting the central bank to do anything about the rally in the yen pairs.

I risked 0.5% at market (99.85) and placed my initial stop loss just below the 200 SMA (99.25). My initial profit target is around the previous highs but I’m willing to adjust it depending on the strength of the dollar.

That’s it for me today! I’ll be watching this one closely for opportunities to enter or adjust my stop loss and profit levels. What do you think?



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