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Close Trade: 2008-12-31 11:09

Greetings! Before I go off to celebrate and usher in 2009, I thought I’d end 2008 on a positive note by closing my short EUR/CHF position down and locking in a nice profit.

Closing remaining short position on EUR/CHF at market (1.4830).

1st Half: +200 pips
2nd Half: +445 pips
Total: +1.61% gain

Not a bad way to close out 2008 and usher in 2009, huh? This exit was mostly for book keeping purposes – I am still short bias on EUR/CHF on the possibility we may see Eurozone weakness and further ECB rate cuts. I look to re-enter short in the New Year, hopefully at a great price again. So, stay tuned, good luck in 2009, and have a wonderful and safe New Year my friends!

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Trade Adjustment: 2008-12-22 11:23

Good morning! My first profit target was in at 1.5075 in morning European session trading. Half of my position was closed to lock in a profit, and now it’s time to make an adjustment!

Half position closed to lock in profit at 1.5075. Adjusting stop on remaining position to break even at 1.5275 to create a risk free trade. I will continue to target 1.4725, and trail my stop by 200 pips along the way.

So, it’s nice to have a bit of profit before I take off for some holiday fun and sun. I will be back next week to do an update or adjustment if necessary. ‘Til then, have a fun and safe holiday! See ya next week!

Trade Idea: 2008-12-22 12:09

crosseyed chart

Good afternoon! In my last post, I mentioned that EUR/CHF is breaking a rising trendline on the daily charts. It looks like that break is holding, so I’d like to throw on some shorts for a nice and easy technical trade.

First, a couple thoughts on fundamentals. I am still bearish in the longer term on Euro as I think the Eurozone is having the same problems as the US – recession, falling inflation, housing, etc. Coupled with the problem of 27 different economies trying to agree on how to battle the current economic environment. Some are getting hurt more than others. The Euro has risen quite a bit in a short period of time, which brings on the concern of how it affects it’s export economy. I think we may see the ECB cut rates at their next meeting to fight the recession and prevent the Euro from rising to fast. Just my humble opinion on what it looks like. I also think there is still more de-leveraging to go and a lack of institutions willing to take on meaningful risk at this point. Really, who wants to take on risk in this environment?

It’s pretty simple really. On the chart, we can see the pair breaking the trendline, and within the past few hourse, the pair has broken below last week’s lows. I am going to short the break of last weeks lows. My stop is just outside of the average daily range of about 185 pips. I will target the minor support level we saw in the rise higher, and ultimately 1.43. Here’s what I’m going to do:

Short EUR/CHF at market (1.5275), stop at 1.5475, pt1 at 1.5075, pt2 1.4725

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

It’s been a volatile market as liquidity dries up during the holidays. Expect the same this week. Be very cautious and always be defense oriented. Stay tuned and Happy Holidays!

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