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Closed Open Order: 2010-02-17 21:25

PoD Chart

Unfortunately, price was unable to retrace back to my desired entry point. In retrospect, I should have gone long on the break of the bullish flag for a quick day trade. I could have netted a few pips there and called it a day! In any case, I think its time for me to close my open orders now that risk aversion is revisiting the markets again. It looks like debt concerns from Italy are resurfacing, causing the safe-havens like the yen and the dollar to rally.

Anyway, looks like the Cavs just made a trade… I wonder how that will work out for them. They’ve got the best record in the NBA, a 13-game winning streak, with arguably the best player in the league (not for me though!) and now they’re tweaking their roster? Should be interesting!

Trade Idea: 2010-02-16 21:56

PoD Chart

Commodity currencies like the Aussie have been on a roll lately, boosted by the rise in gold prices. Yesterday we saw another strong rise as higher-yielding currencies rose across the board on increased risk appetite. Even currencies like the euro and pound, which were taking a beating in recent weeks, were rallying. This could signal that risk appetite is indeed up across the board and that yesterday’s rally may continue.

Looking ahead, we’ve got the BOJ interest rate decision coming out tomorrow, which could provide some volatility in the markets. Also tonight, we’ve got some housing data from the US. If these reports come out better than expected, it could cause another market rally like what we saw yesterday. This in turn, could benefit the AUD once again.

Technically, we can see that the pair managed to bust through resistance at 80.00, causing it to make a new major high. From the looks of it, the downtrend of the pair has been broken and the pair could rally further and test support levels that were previous broken.

Here’s my game plan:

Long AUD/JPY at 80.00, pt1 81.20, pt2 at 83.30and stop at 78.80.

I know my entry order is far off but volatility from the upcoming BOJ interest rate decision could take price there. In addition, stochastics show that the pair is overbought, signaling a possible retracement. Hopefully Australia bags another medal in the Vancouver Winter Olympics to boost the Aussie spirit!

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Good luck and stay tuned!

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