And it finally comes to an end. The pair basically just bounced around in 120 pip range, stopping me out at breakeven. In hindsight, I think I may have been too slow on picking up that the pair was ranging instead of trending upwards.
In any case, I am still able to go out of this trade slightly positive because of the interest rate differential between the euro and the yen, but flat in terms of pips. Hopefully, I can catch a couple of pips on range plays in the future as summer here in the US is fast approaching.
Profit in %: 0
Profit in pips: 0
Trade Adjustment: 2010-04-25 23:31
Whoa! I’ve held this EURJPY trade open for almost 3 weeks now and it looks like my luck has been topsy turvy! First, I almost hit my take profit point, but price couldn’t break through resistance at 127.70. Then, on poor news and risk aversion moves, the pair dropped and I almost stopped out. It’s a good thing that supports at 123.50 has generally held and now my trade is winning again.
The reason why the pair has dropped is because of increased risk aversion, primarily due to news coming out of Greece. Every time bad news about Greece’s debt comes out, we’ve been seeing a strong euro sell-off. In fact, we just saw new yearly lows in the EURUSD pair! Luckily for me though, it seems that these concerns were lifted last Friday, as the euro bounced back.What concerns me though, is how long this will actually last. I think that the eurozone is still unstable and that there still exists the possibility of poor news from other eurozone countries, like Portugal and Spain. I’m going to adjust my first profit target to 127.00 and move my stop to break-even, as I’m not quite sure how much higher this pair can go now that conditions have changed.
While I’m lowering the reward to risk ratio, I think this is the correct move as I might miss out on hitting my take profit point again.
Trade Idea: 2010-04-06 23:04
I spy with my one good eye a nice little setup on the EURJPY. A good opportunity to buy at a cheaper price?
Let’s start with the technicals. I’m looking to go long once the pair hits the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This level lines up nicely with the broken neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern from last week. With stochastics inching closer and closer to oversold territory, we could soon see an upward move.
Learning from my previous mistake, I’ll be setting my stop at 230 pips away from my entry point, almost double the pair’s average true range and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. I’ve set two profit targets: one at 127.90, a former high and another at 130.00, a possible support-turned-resistance level.
On the fundamental side, I saw with my one good eye that the eurozone Sentix investor confidence index is set for release later today. The reading for April is slated to climb from -7.5 to -5.9, reflecting that pessimism among investors is fading. Still, conflicts surrounding the Greek aid plan could weigh the euro down and allow the EURJPY pair to fall until my entry order.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen could continue to weaken ahead of the BOJ interest rate decision. After all, the central bank announced an expansion of their quantitative easing measures last month and could echo the same downbeat sentiment this time around.
Additionally, Thursday’s eurozone retail sales and German industrial production reports, which are both slated to post improvements, could lift the EURJPY higher.
Long EURJPY at 125.30, pt1 at 127.90, pt2 at 130.00, stop loss at 123.00. As usual, I will be risking only 1% of my account.
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