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Closed Open Order: 2010-02-25 22:39

PoD Chart

I got left behind on this trade, as the yen rallied early in the Asian session yesterday. I can’t even say that I was close to being triggered, as the pair only went as high as 35 pips away from my entry point. We barely ever see such strong moves in the Asian session, so I didn’t expect it to fall so quickly.

It seems that risk aversion is rampant right now, but I’m thinking whether the down moves in the yen pairs are overdone. I’m pretty bummed that I missed out on both the EURJPY and GBPJPY moves this week. It’s time to lock in and focus – I’ll be looking for a possible retracement next week!

Been watching Olympic hockey lately and boy, Team Canada’s win over Russia was pretty darn impressive. Well, I guess it should be expected – they have home court (rink?) advantage!

Trade Idea: 2010-02-23 21:25

PoD Chart

I’m looking to enter on a retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which happens to line up with the psychologically round figure of 123.00. It also appears that this price area has been of interest in the past, so sellers could be looking at the price to jump in. Since I’m being slightly aggressive on this trade, I’m going to place a wide stop, putting my stop loss at 124.40, well above the rising trend line. My first take profit point will be yesterday’s low at 121.60, with my ultimate target at 120.00.

After seeing a bunch of downbeat economic figures, particularly from the German Ifo business climate and French consumer spending reports, sentiment for the euro zone has been heavily bearish lately. It doesn’t help that Greece’s debt standing is still hanging by a thread, pending plans for a concrete bailout.

Aside from that, upcoming reports from the euro zone are slated to print bleak figures. The GfK German consumer climate reading is estimated to dip from 3.2 to 3.2 in February while the entire euro zone’s industrial orders report for December is expected to print a 1.1% decline. Later on during the week, euro zone could post a deterioration in consumer confidence.

So, given my bearish stance on the euro, my bias towards risk aversion and the nice technical setup, I’m going to short the EURJPY.

Short at 123.00, pt1 at 121.60, pt2 at 120.00, stop loss at 124.40

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