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Trade Closed: 2010-06-20 22:45

PoD Chart

D’oh! I guess I was a little too confident that the pair would keep rising and I should have closed earlier when I had a chance!

Even though I didn’t see the reaction to the retail sales report that I had wanted, I was confident that the pair would keep on rising… which it did. As you can see, the pair just made a higher high. I was a little unlucky too, as I underestimated the pair’s volatility and set my stop a bit too tight. Once my stop was hit, the pair immediately reversed and respected the rising trend line.

In any case, I should have just closed early. I was wrong about the retail sales report, which came in better than expected and boosted the pound across the board. With the markets being choppy right now, I need to react faster, especially to news reports. The market just keeps on jumping all over good news right now.

Total : -45 pips / -1.0%.

After three consecutive wins, my account takes a hit. I’ll get it right next time! And oh, if you want to see how I’ve been doing with my trades, just head on over to my blog at!

Trade Idea: 2010-06-16 23:27

PoD Chart

I took a look at today’s economic calendar and noticed that we’ve got the catalyst that could provide the fuel needed for a breakout. At 8:30 am GMT, UK retail sales data will be released. Analysts are projecting that the report will print a mere increase of just 0.1% in retail sales for the month of May. Looking back, sales growth has been falling the past couple of months, indicating weakness in consumer spending. If we see the report fail to meet consensus, we might just see the pound take a beating.

Now, no major news is coming out from the euro zone, but I’m going to be keeping my eye out for the SNB press conference at 7:30 am GMT. In the past, our pals over at the SNB have not been afraid to intervene in the markets to keep the franc cheap. Now that the franc has been hitting new highs versus the euro, the central bank officials have been more aggressive in statements, saying that they will intervene in the markets should this trend continue. I think there’s a chance that such statements could be repeated in today’s press conference.

On the technical side, I’m seeing an ascending triangle – “higher lows” but equal “highs” in price – has formed on the hourly chart. Since this type of triangle is considered bullish, I’m going to place my buy stop just above yesterday’s high and target .8450, a support-turned-resistance level. Because this is a news and day trade, I will be placing a relatively tight stop, which is half the pair’s daily average true range of 90 pips.

My game plan is as follows:

Long EURGBP at .8370, pt at .8450, stop loss at .8325. As usual, my risk will be 1% of my account.

Spain might have lost to the Swiss in the World Cup, but that doesn’t mean the same will happen in the FX markets. Viva España!

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