Current Trend= The trend remained up until 7am EDT. From 3am EDT – 7am EDT, a new trend change candle formed and changed the trend from up to down. From 7am EDT – 11am EDT it looked like a new trend change candle was forming to change the trend back to up. However, stochastics were still trending down which negated the chance for it to be a trend change candle. This means the trend was still down. We’ll have to see what happens at 3pm EDT (the close of the 11am EDT 4hr candle) to see if stochastics crosses up or if it continues to trend down. This will determine the future trend. So until then, the trend still remains down.
Today I only looked for long trades until 7am EDT. After 7am EDT I only looked for short trades.
3:30am EDT– There was a moving average crossover for a long trade. RSI was greater than 50, stochastics were trending up, and MACD went from negative to positive. This was a valid entry. The entry was at the close of the candle at 1.9611 with a stop at the most recent swing low at 1.9570. Since I was 39 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level, I decided to put my target at 1.9650.
Entry: Long at 1.9611
Initial Target: 1.9650
4:15am EDT– My target wasn’t hit. I knew that news was coming out at 4:30am EDT and according to my rules, I don’t hold trades over important news reports. I exited my trade at 1.9591 for a 20 pip loss.
*Note– because the 4hr candle did not have its stochastics trending up, the trend still remained down until the close of the 11am EDT candle to see whether or not the trend remained down or changed to up.
11:00am EDT– There was a moving average crossover for a short trade. RSI was less than 50, stochastics were trending down, and MACD went from positive to negative. This was a valid entry. The entry was at the close of the candle at 1.9622 with a stop at the most recent swing high at 1.9720. Since I was 22 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level, I decided to put my target at 1.9600.
Entry: Short at 1.9622
Initial Target: 1.9600
12:45pm EDT– My target was hit. Price made a clean break which means I could’ve trailed my stop and went for more, but I was tired so I just went ahead and closed my trade. I exited at 1.9596.
Trade Result: -20 +26= +6 pips; R-Multiple: -0.48; -0.26
News events to watch for Monday :
- 8:30am EDT- US Housing Starts and Building Permits, Unemployment claims
- 10:00am EDT– Ben Bernanke Speaks