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Main Trend

Daylight savings time! Because of daylight savings time, the times of the 4hr chart have changed, but the data is still the same.

Current Trend= The trend remained up the entire day.

Today I only looked for long trades.

Today’s Surf

1:30am EDT– There was a moving average crossover for a long trade. RSI was greater than 50, stochastics were trending up, and MACD went from negative to positive. This was a valid entry. The entry was at the close of the candle at 2.1010 with a stop at the most recent swing low at 2.0984. Since I was 40 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level, I put my initial target at 2.1050.

Entry: Long at 2.1010
Stop: 2.0984
Initial Target: 2.1050

5:45am EDT– My target was hit. Price made a clean break so I moved my stop to 2.1050 and set my next target for 2.1100.

6:00am EDT– Unfortunately I was stopped out at 2.1050

Trade Result: +40 pips; R-Multiple: 1.53

News events to watch for tomorrow :
  • 8:30am EDTUS Trade Balance
    • The U.S. international trade gap narrowed noticeably in August to $57.6 billion from a revised $59.0 billion in July. The improvement was due to both a decline in imports and a rise in exports. Markets need to pick apart the details in this report and not just look at the headline number. Yes, we need to see continued export growth to support domestic manufacturing and with earlier declines in the dollar, we will likely get higher exports. But there will be interesting detail in imports. Much of the decline in imports in the last report was due to lower oil prices but also from dips in imports of consumer goods and motor vehicles. We will likely see a price induced rise in oil imports but it will be interesting to see whether businesses expect healthy consumer spending according to the strength or lack of strength in consumer related imports.
      • International trade balance Consensus Forecast for September 07: -$58.5 billion
        Range: -$60.5 billion to -$57.0 billion
  • 10:00am EDTUS Consumer Sentiment
    • The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 80.9 in October from 83.4 in September. The index fell its sharpest since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina two years ago. But consumer confidence indexes can be volatile, often showing major drops and major gains in sudden bursts. Current losses are concentrated in the most important sub-component, the assessment of future conditions which fell to 70.1. The assessment of current conditions is steady at a much firmer 97.6. Inflation expectations do show some pressure, no doubt tied to oil prices. Twelve-month inflation expectations are at 3.1 percent, up 1 tenth from mid-month but unchanged from September.
      • Consumer sentiment index Consensus Forecast for preliminary November 07: 80.0
        Range: 77.6 to 81.5

For a list of all of tomorrow’s news events, check out our Forex Calendar

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