EUR/NZD is testing a triple support zone after Lagarde’s relatively hawkish remarks earlier this week.
Will this lead to EUR/NZD extending a weeks-long uptrend?
We’re taking a closer look at the 4-hour time frame:
EUR/NZD: 4-hour
EUR/NZD 4-hour Forex Chart Faster with TradingView
Lagarde kicked off the ECB’s Sintra forum by framing the June rate hike as a response to a real inflation problem, not an “insurance” move, and said inflation isn’t expected to return to target until late 2027.
Kiwi, meanwhile, isn’t getting much help from firmer gold prices, better risk sentiment, or New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected June business confidence reading earlier this week. With the RBNZ rate decision coming up next week, NZD bulls still look hesitant to chase the currency higher.
EUR/NZD has been grinding higher along a rising trend line since early June, but the latest pullback from the 2.02500 area has dragged price into a key support cluster.Remember that directional biases and volatility conditions in market price are typically driven by fundamentals. If you haven’t yet done your homework on the New Zealand dollar and the euro, then it’s time to check out the economic calendar and stay updated on daily fundamental news!
Price is now around 2.0060, sitting near the 50% Fibonacci retracement, the S1 Pivot Point, and the 100 SMA, all stacked just above trend line support.
Watch for bullish candlesticks in this zone. If buyers defend the cluster, EUR/NZD could make another run at the recent highs near 2.0250, then possibly R1 at 2.0280 if the uptrend gets its legs back.
But if sellers break below the trend line and S1 support, the pair could slip toward the 61.8% Fib near 2.000. After that, S2 at 1.9850 becomes the next big line in the sand.
Whichever bias you end up trading, don’t forget to practice proper risk management and stay aware of top-tier catalysts that could influence overall market sentiment.
Please be aware that the technical analysis content provided herein is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be construed as trading advice or a suggestion of any specific directional bias. Technical analysis is just one aspect of a comprehensive trading strategy. The technical setups discussed are intended to highlight potential areas of interest that other traders may be observing. Ultimately, all trading decisions, risk management strategies, and their resulting outcomes are the sole responsibility of each individual trader. Please trade responsibly.
EUR/NZD is sitting on a support cluster where a Fibonacci retracement, pivot point, moving average, and trend line all converge at the same level, which may not be a coincidence. Premium members can read our lesson:
📖 Confluence: Stacking the Odds in Your Favor
Reading this helps you understand how to score a price action setup using confluence, why multiple technical factors pointing at the same level creates a stronger signal, and how to apply that framework when analyzing setups like this one.
And if you’re not a Premium subscriber yet, now’s a good time to sign up.
With Babypips Premium, you get full access to School of Pipsology lessons that help you understand not just where the technical levels are, but why a cluster of them matters more than any single one on its own.
