Just when I thought I got a nearly perfect entry, this trade blew up in my face!
I initially got triggered at 1.2750 and actually came within a few pips of triggering my second position.
Once I was in the money by about 30 pips, I canceled my second order as I didn’t think it would get hit anymore.
And boy, it’s a good thing I did too!
Thanks to some new developments following the EU summit, we saw some risk-taking take place last Friday.
I thought I’d still be safe since at least both the Aussie and the Kiwi were benefitting from the move. Besides, we don’t normally see such strong moves on AUD/NZD.
Unfortunately for me, traders were hungrier for the Aussie, and this bullishness carried right into the weekend!
By the time I crawled out of my cave on Monday morning, I saw that my trade had been stopped out because AUD/NZD gapped up 40 pips higher!!!
Stopped out at 1.2820: – 70 pips / -0.30%
The one good thing I liked about this trade was my execution. I properly recognized that I needed to cancel my second order and acted appropriately. It was just some bad luck that the pair gapped up over the weekend and stopped out of my position.
Overall, not a happy ending to the quarter for me. Make sure to tune back in tomorrow when I post my Q2 2012 Trading Performance report!
Trade Idea
I just love me a good solid trend, that’s why I couldn’t resist setting orders to sell AUD/NZD! Have a look, fellas!
The technical aspect of this trade seems compelling to me. Open up AUD/NZD’s 4-hour chart and you’ll see a solid downtrend that has developed over the past four weeks.
Fundamentally, I understand why the Kiwi has been strengthening against the Aussie.Even though rate cut expectations have sort of tempered for the Reserve Bank of Australia, it still holds a more dovish stance than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Lucky for me, I spotted this setup while the price was on its way to the upper boundaries of the falling channel. Time to short this sucka!
Here’s how I set up my trade:
Sell the first position at 1.2750, stop loss at 1.2820, profit target at 1.2650.
Sell the second position at 1.2775, stop loss at 1.2820, profit target at 1.2650.
I set my first sell order at 1.2750 because it’s a nice round number and I think the price could intersect the falling trend line in this area. My second sell order is placed at 1.2775 because I wanted to give this trade room in case of the market spikes up. Plus, I noticed that 1.2775 was an area of interest back in May.
I set both stop losses above 1.2800 to give this trade room to breathe in case the pair decides to trade sideways. And as for my profit targets, I’m aiming for a new low at 1.2650, though I will consider exiting early if the market gives me signs to do so!
I’ll be risking just 0.30% of my account on each position which means that if both positions get triggered, a total of 0.60% will be at risk.
I’ve had some rotten luck as of late but hopefully, this trade will bust me out of my slump!
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