Trade Closed: 2012-10-23 03:22
I just got more proof that the old adage is true… Patience really does pay! Check out how my AUD/CAD trade turned out:
Save for the initial scare that I got after AUD/CAD broke below 1.0000, this trade has been an absolute angel.
As I mentioned last week, the AUD has been on quite a tear, thanks in part to good employment data and upbeat Chinese reports. Meanwhile, the CAD has been taking a beating after the BOC signaled that it doesn’t plan to hike rates until economic conditions ripen.
No wonder AUD/CAD has been going nowhere but up over the past week! As for the results on my account, this is what happened:
Profit target hit at 1.0250: +250 pips / + 1.875%.
Boo yeah! My decision to go big (I risked 0.75%) paid off – it gave me my biggest win of the year yet!
Q4 2012, so far so good. Now, if I could only string together a few more wins… then I’d really have myself a merry holiday season!
I hope you guys were able to milk this baby too. Thanks for following, guys!
Trade Update: 2012-10-18 05:20
Thank God I stayed patient on this one! Thanks to an awesome run by the Aussie, I’m now up over 150 pips!
The Aussie bulls feasted on good employment figures late last week, as the Australian labor market added a decent 14,500 jobs to the economy, nearly triple the expected 5,100 increase.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar took some hits when Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney hinted that the central bank may lower its growth forecasts and hold back on any rate hikes for the meantime. Word on the street is that with all the concern surrounding the global economy, now just ain’t the time to be raising the interest rate roof!
In turn, we’re seeing AUD/CAD surge up the charts this week, with the pair nearly testing the 1.0200 handle.
While I’m glad to finally see my trade in the black, I am a little bit cautious about that shooting star that’s formed on the daily chart. I’ve decided to move my stop to 1.0080, which means I’ve locked in at least 80 pips on this trade.
The reason why I’m not closing out my whole position just yet is because Stochastic is still climbing, which indicates that the bulls may still have some room for me to hit my ultimate profit target at 1.0250. If we do see Stochastic crossover back to the downside, then I’ll definitely consider exiting the trade.
For those of you who also took this setup, how do you plan on managing this trade?
Trade Update: 2012-10-09 05:35
The combination of better-than-expected Canadian employment change figures (52.1K vs 10K) and a risk rally in the aftermath of the NFP release boosted the Canadian dollar, allowing it to outpace other currencies. In turn, this sent AUD/CAD crashing lower, hitting my limit order at parity!
Now, I have to admit, I am a little concerned that we just got a solid bearish candle close below the 1.0000 mark, but I am willing to give this setup a little more time to develop.
For one, the pair bounced off the .9950 level, which was also a former resistance-turned-support level in the past.
Second, Stochastic is showing signs of crossing over, indicating that sellers are running out of steam.
I’m gonna give this trade until the end of the week before I decide whether to hold on or not. If we see price close back above parity, it may be a sign that the recent trend could be coming to an end and that the bulls are back in control. On the flip side, if price continues to consolidate below 1.0000, I may have to cut my trade early and take a hit.
How do you guys see this pair playing out for the rest of the week?
Trade Idea: 2012-10-03 01:40
Do me a favor, fellas, and open up the daily chart of AUD/CAD and scroll back to these dates:
- August 8, 2011
- September 22, 2011
- October 4, 2011
- May 15, 2012
- May 23, 2012
- May 31, 2012
Notice anything special? Yup, AUD/CAD tested parity on all of those dates… and failed to break below it each and every time!
It actually came close to doing so a few times, but Aussie buyers always managed to push the pair back up above 1.0000 before the day’s end. Since the market has such a strong tendency to turn around at this level, I set up this trade plan:
Buy AUD/CAD at 1.0000, stop loss at .9900, profit target at 1.0250.
I noticed that the pair hasn’t gone more than 90 pips below 1.0000 in over a year, so I think a 100-pip stop should suffice. As for my profit target, I’ve got my eye on previous resistance around 1.02500.
You can probably tell that this is a technical trade more than anything. With the RBA surprising the markets with a rate cut yesterday, momentum seems to favor Aussie sellers at the moment. Still, I can’t help but feel that selling pressure on AUD/CAD will die down in the coming days after the RBA’s decision gets fully priced in.
Besides, the reward-to-risk ratio on this bad boy is just too good to turn down. How can you not give this potential 2.5:1 trade a shot??
Since this is a long-term trade, I’m a bit more comfortable with risking more than my usual 0.50%. I’m going with 0.75% on this one because I think I’ll be locked in this trade for a while if my buy order manages to get triggered.
What do you guys think? Are you with me on this?
Q2 2012 Trading Performance Review
Weekly Watch: October 1 to 5, 2012
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