Recapping the Majors
EUR/USD– After some exciting moves by the Euro, the pair stayed relatively quiet today. The Euro ranged between 3400-3450 and didn’t really do much. The pair has closed above 3400 two times since April 4th. We’ll have to wait another day to see if the Euro can sustain the momentum at this level.
Result: The pair was at a standstill today as the Euro stayed flat against the Dollar.
GBP/USD- The Sterling was able to continue its strong momentum from yesterday as it started the day by rallying back to 9800. However, the Sterling was unable to hold its ground at the level and bounced back down to 9750. The pair faces tough resistance at 9800 and the late retracement in the day could indicate that the 9800 resistance may hold its ground again.
Result: After starting the day on a roll, the Sterling only managed to make slight gains against the Dollar, closing 50 pips higher from its open. This is the 2nd straight day the Sterling has made gains against the Dollar.
USD/CHF- After falling hard yesterday, the Dollar was able to push back as it rose to 2200 again. The pair held support early on at its 100 SMA on the 4hr chart at 2163 and was able to push up to as high as 2225 before drifting back down to 2200.
Result: The Dollar was able to fight back as it made a slight gain against the Swissy today and brought it back to 2200.
USD/JPY- The Dollar was able to rally to as high as 119.50 but once again fell back down and stayed within the 119.00-119.50 range. The pair has been consolidating within this range after the pair initially broke 119.00 on April 5th. At this point it still looks like an indecisive battle between the two currencies.
Result: The Dollar made a slight gain against the Yen but was unable to push it above 119.50. The pair is once again stuck between 119.00-119.50.
Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?
The Euro didn’t really do much today. I thought it might float a little higher to around 3475 but that wasn’t the case. Daily stochastics are still trending up and is just heading into overbought territory so I still think the pair may float a little higher. 4hr stochastics are trending down so my overall sentiment is still bearish for the pair. Look for the pair to continue to float up to around 3450-3475 before falling back down to 3400.
Well I was right on the money with the Sterling finding resistance at the 9800 level as it bounced back down to 9750. 4hr stochastics are trending down which means we could see the pair fall back towards 9700 but daily stochastics are trending up. I think after the pair falls to around 9700 we’ll see it bounce back up to 9800 again.
Well the Swissy did follow the technicals and ended up rising back up to 2200. 4hr stochastics are still trending up which means we could still see the pair rise. However, there should be some good resistance at the 38% Fib line as that is also where the 50 EMA is on the daily chart. Daily stochastics are also trending down which indicates that we could see some bearish movement after it rises to the 38% fib line. Look for the pair to rise to around 2240 followed by a bounce back down to 2200.
The USD/JPY is still at a standstill. The longer it consolidates like this, the more likely it is that we’ll see a volatile movement one way or the other. Daily stochastics are in overbought territory and 4hr stochastics seems to have crossed down. The technicals are indicating a bearish move and if we see a clean break of 119.00 (I look at the 4hr chart for this) then we should see it head down to its 100 SMA on the daily chart which is currently around 118.70.