Fed Decision Quiz: Hawkish or Dovish?

Every Fed decision has two parts: what the central bank actually does, and what it signals about the future.

The rate change (a cut, a hike, or a hold) is the action.

The language in the statement, the tone of the press conference, and the projections in the dot plot are the signal.

Markets don’t just react to the action. They react to whether the signal confirms it or contradicts it.

A cut paired with open-ended forward guidance is very different from a cut paired with a warning that further easing is unlikely. The first is dovish. The second is hawkish. That distinction is what this quiz tests.

Each question below gives you a rate decision and a sample of the accompanying language. Your job is to identify which of the six scenarios it represents. The answer is not always obvious from the action alone.