Last week, markets got their earthquake. U.S.-Israeli military strikes launched on February 28th under Operation Epic Fury killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggering retaliatory missile barrages across Gulf states and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical energy chokepoint. What followed was one of the most violent commodity repricing events since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine: WTI crude surged roughly 34% on the week, Brent breached $90 per barrel for the first time in nearly two years, and tanker freight rates for VLCCs to China hit all-time highs. The final exclamation point arrived Friday when U.S. nonfarm payrolls contracted by 92,000 — a historic miss — while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The dollar still managed weekly gains on safe-haven demand, but the macro backdrop had decisively shifted: stagflation is no longer a theoretical tail risk.
The calendar structure this week is heavily back-loaded. Monday opens quietly with China CPI/PPI and Japan's Q4 GDP revision. Tuesday brings China trade data. The real fireworks begin Wednesday when U.S. February CPI drops at 8:30am ET alongside BoE Monetary Policy Report hearings in the UK. Governor Bailey speaks Thursday. Friday delivers the week's double-barrel finale: Canada employment, U.S. Core PCE for January, preliminary U.S. Q4 GDP, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. Geopolitical developments can scramble this calendar at any moment.