U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday before the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, though the Treasury Department saw solid demand for $54 billion in new three and 10-year notes.
Both the $32 billion three-year notes and $22 billion 10-year notes sold at lower yields than where they had traded before the auctions.
Indirect bidders, which includes fund managers, some central banks and other investors, took their largest share of a three-year auction since January. Primary dealers took a lower-than-average share of the 10-year sale at 28 percent, reflecting strong demand for the notes from investors.
The supply kicks off a busy week of global central bank meetings, geopolitical events and economic data.
“The auctions went well, certainly as well as could be expected with all the data and events this week,” said Lou Brien, a market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.
The U.S. will sell $14 billion in 30-year bonds on Tuesday.
Benchmark 10-year notes fell 8/32 in price to yield 2.963 percent, up from 2.935 percent on Friday.
Fed officials are due to update their economic and rate projections on Wednesday and investors will watch whether the median rate hike expectation for this year increases to four, from three.
“It only would take one voter to shift that way,” said Thomas Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies in New York.
Another focus will be any discussion about the potential for further hikes to slow economic growth. An increase on Wednesday will take rates back to the real neutral rate, which measures rates minus inflation, with further increases being contractionary unless the neutral rate also rises.
“They are going to have to at least discuss the idea of whether they want to go from a rate that’s accommodative, which is what we’re at now, to a rate that’s restrictive, which is what they’ll be at the next time they raise rates,” said Brien.
The European Central Bank meeting on Thursday is also a key focus after the bank’s chief economist said last week that the ECB will debate whether to end bond purchases later this year.
U.S. economic releases this week will include consumer price inflation data on Tuesday and retail sales on Thursday.
U.S. President Donald Trump is due to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on Tuesday to narrow differences on how to end a nuclear stand-off on the Korean peninsula.