With Theresa May presenting Brexit Plan B in the next hour or so, Sterling is the one to watch in an otherwise quiet start to the new week.
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Bund 10-YR 0.259% -0.003
UK 10-YR: 1.311% -0.043
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- Angela Merkel gives May a helping hand saying Brussels will compromise to save Brexit deal
- Theresa May’s Brexit ‘plan B’ rejected by Europe
- German PPI down 0.4% in December
- Jeremy Corbyn expected to back move to block no-deal Brexit
- Chinese Economy Growing at Its Slowest Pace Since 1990
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- British PM Theresa May presents Brexit Plan B at 3:30 pm GMT
What to Watch: GBP/JPY
There’s potential for volatility to pick up in the next hour or two when U.K. prime minister Theresa May presents her new plan for the U.K. to leave the European Union (watch the event live here). Once again, Brexit developments don’t really have a precedent to tell us what we could expect, so we don’t know if volatility will actually kick up, but given the empty economic calendar and the U.S. on holiday, this is likely the best bet for an opportunity to show up.
If we do see volatility, we’re watching GBP/JPY, particularly the 140.00 handle for a retest. It was a strong area of interest last week before the market broke out higher. After hitting the 142.00 handle, it’s since retraced but the uptrend still looks intact.
If a “no-deal” Brexit still looks like the least probable outcome after Theresa May’s presentation and parliament debate, buyers could be hopping in all the way down to the 140.00 area to play the longer-term rebound in Guppy. If the “no-deal” Brexit probabilities rise, then its likely traders may get bearish on Sterling, which makes a break of rising ‘lows’ and sustaining below the 140.00 handle an attractive setup for the bears. Stay focused and trade safe!