USD/CAD quickly makes it back to the daily watchlist on a bearish day for the Greenback and after the latest Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting.
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- Fitch warns of possible cut to US triple-A rating if shutdown continues
- Fed’s Bullard Warns More Rate Rises Could Lead to a Recession
- Eurozone unemployment a bright spot amid growing gloom
- May pressing talks with EU to get Brexit assurances
- Switzerland December CPI -0.3% vs -0.2% m/m expected
- Euro struggles on weak data; Aussie buoyed by U.S.-China talks
- Canadian Housing Starts Trend Decreases in December
- PBOC to Start New Medium-Term Lending Tool in January, Yi Says
- Trump, Democrats Not Budging On Border Security, Shutdown Positions
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- Bank of Canada Press Conference at 4:15 pm
- Fed’s Rosengren Speaks in Boston at 4:30 pm GMT
- BOE Carney Participates in Online Q&A at 5:30 pm GMT
- FOMC Meeting Minutes released at 7:00 pm GMT
What to Watch: USD/CAD
The Greenback is having a rough day (USD Index 95.30 -0.62%), likely on the broad rally in global risk sentiment as we see positive signs from the U.S.-China trade negotiations story, pushing traders away from safe haven assets like U.S. bonds with yields moving higher.
Couple today’s dollar moves with the Bank of Canada monetary policy statement, which was released minutes ago (no changes to interest rate; pace of rate hikes could be more gradual as economy is hit by slumping oil prices), and we could see extended moves in USD/CAD through out the U.S. trading session.
Right now, though, the pair has retraced back to pre-release levels (and its likely to calm for now), but short-term volatility could pick up within the hour as the Bank of Canada will give a press conference at 4:15 pm GMT (to be streamed here).
Watch out for a retest of the consolidation area as bears may be peeping it for another potential opportunity to play USD/CAD’s recent weakness. A target area on the session could be around the 1.3170 handle, which was a major support area back in November 2018. For the bulls out there, it might make sense to wait for the press conference before making moves, just see if Stephen Poloz and company gets more dovish on Canada’s economic outlook and if the market can take USD/CAD above that consolidation area.