Sterling slipped to a two-week low against the dollar on Monday as investors questioned whether the Bank of England would raise interest rates in May following weaker-than-expected economic data and cautious comments from governor Mark Carney.
The pound has been one of the best performing major currencies in 2018 and last week surged to its highest level since the Brexit referendum in June 2016.
But weaker-than-expected wage growth and inflation, and comments by Carney that the data was “mixed” hit the currency hard, sending it down almost 1.7 percent for the week as investors rushed to price in the possibility the BoE could delay raising rates until later in the year.
Analysts on Monday said they would watch gross domestic product figures due later in the week for signs of how the economy was holding up and whether it pointed to a BoE ready to hike rates.
“We think the UK data this week may be enough to rekindle rate hike expectations,” said ING FX analyst Viraj Patel.
But he cautioned that politics could impact sterling this week if a cross-party and non-binding technical vote on Brexit on Thursday threatened Prime Minister Theresa May’s leadership.
The pound traded flat at $1.3997, after earlier hitting a 2-1/2 week low of $1.3984, as broad dollar strength kept the pound under pressure.
Against the euro, the pound recovered and rose 0.3 percent to 87.515 pence.
A seasonal rise in capital inflows into Britain from foreign companies paying UK shareholders dividends has boosted sterling during April in recent years.
Economists, almost all of whom had predicted the BoE would act in May before Carney’s Thursday interview, believe the central bank’s vote on rates next month will now be very close.
Berenberg economists said that because of an acceleration in nominal wages and above-trend real GDP growth they expected four 25 basis point hikes over the next two years, with two increases each in 2018 and 2019.