Now that we’re done with the first quarter of the year, it’s time we take a look at how the big dawgs of the financial markets were able to predict price action. Based on my research using the exchange rate estimates published on the Bloomberg Terminal and the closing prices of currency pairs for March 31, 2014…
Woah, those forex forecasts were way off! It appears that most financial hotshots were overly bullish on the U.S. dollar when they made their estimates back then, although USD/CHF and USD/CAD did end less than a hundred pips away from the median forecasts. It seems that the negative effect of the bleak weather conditions on the U.S. labor market and Fed monetary policy may have been underestimated at that time.
As I emphasize with my disclaimers, these forecasts are merely educated guesses and that nothing is ever set in stone in the forex market. Even the most well-funded, smartest researchers in the world cannot accurately predict where price will be three months from now.
With that, always take estimates with a grain of salt and simply use them as a guide to the big market players‘ sentiment to supplement to your own analysis. In a few days, I’ll let you in on the exchange rate forecasts for this quarter so stay tuned!