US Consumer Confidence Falls to 81.9 as Job Openings Slip

U.S. consumer confidence dropped to 81.9 in September, missing the 89.2 forecast by more than seven points. Job openings slipped too, landing at 7.1 million in August against a 7.2 million forecast. Both reports hit on September 29, and both say households and employers are pulling back. The catch: layoffs stay low, so the job market is cooling but holding together.

U.S. Consumer Confidence and JOLTS: Key Takeaways

Consumer confidence: The Conference Board index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September from 88.6 in August. Economists expected 89.2.
Weakest since 2014: Bloomberg reports the September reading is the lowest for the index in more than a decade.
Present vs. future: The Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its third straight monthly decline.
Job openings: JOLTS openings fell to 7.1 million in August from 7.3 million in July after an upward revision. The forecast was 7.2 million.
Layoffs stay low: Layoffs and discharges eased to 1.6 million, a 1.0% rate. The quits rate held at 1.9%.
Prices and rates: Consumers expect 6.1% inflation over the next 12 months, and 68.4% expect higher interest rates.
Next up: The September jobs report arrives Friday, October 2, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Fed decides on rates October 28 at 2:00 p.m. ET.

What Were the September Consumer Confidence Results?

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index tracks how U.S. households feel about business conditions, jobs, and their own income. The Conference Board, a nonprofit research group, surveys consumers online each month. The index uses 1985 as its base year, with a value of 100.

The index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August. Economists expected 89.2, so the miss topped seven points. Bloomberg reports that the reading is the weakest since 2014.

The index has two parts. The Present Situation Index tracks how consumers rate current business and job conditions. It fell 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index tracks their short-term outlook. It dropped 5.9 points to 63.6, its third straight monthly decline. Think of the first as a rearview mirror and the second as your headlights. Neither looked great in September.

The details sting too. Net views of current business conditions, meaning the share saying “good” minus the share saying “bad,” fell 3.4 points to -1.9%. That turned negative for the first time since September 2024. In the survey, 18.5% of consumers called conditions good and 20.4% called them bad.

Why Did Consumer Confidence Fall in September?

Fuel costs topped the list. Dana Peterson, the Conference Board’s chief economist, said mentions of prices and of oil and gas hit new highs in written comments. The release linked that jump to a September surge in fuel costs as comments about war and conflict eased but stayed elevated.

Timing mattered too. The survey ran from September 1 to 23, a stretch that included the Fed’s rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Consumers also expect prices to keep climbing. Their average 12-month inflation forecast rose 0.3 points to 6.1%, and the median forecast rose 0.3 points to 5.1%.

Higher rates add to the worry. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next year jumped 5.2 points to 68.4%. Higher rates make loans and credit cards costlier, which tends to squeeze household budgets. For the second time since the question began four years ago, more consumers rated their household finances “bad” than “good.”

Job views softened as well. In September, 23.6% of consumers said jobs are plentiful, down from 24.5%, while 21.9% said jobs are hard to get, up from 20.3%. That narrowed the gap to +1.7%. Income hopes held up better, with net expectations for household income slipping 3.0 points but staying positive at +2.5%.

What Do the August JOLTS Job Openings Show?

JOLTS stands for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes it monthly. The report shows how many jobs sit open, how many people get hired, and how many quit or lose their jobs. A job counts as open if the position stays unfilled on the last business day of the month.

Job openings came in at 7.1 million in August, a rate of 4.3%, below the 7.2 million forecast. The BLS revised July up by 64,000 to 7.3 million, so August marks a step down. Bloomberg called it a five-month low that missed every estimate in its economist survey. The drop touched professional and business services, healthcare, state and local government, manufacturing, and construction. The BLS called the monthly change small, so treat it as a soft dip.

Hiring and firing both stayed quiet. Employers hired 5.2 million people in August, a hires rate of 3.3%. Layoffs and discharges eased to 1.6 million, or 1.0% of employment. Bloomberg reports layoffs fell to their lowest level since March 2025.

Quits hold another clue. The quits rate stayed at 1.9%, matching the lowest since 2020, Bloomberg says. Workers quit when they feel confident about finding something better. A low rate suggests many feel stuck in the seat they have.

Economists call this a low-hire, low-fire job market. Employers neither add staff nor cut it. Picture a crowded waiting room where nobody gets called in and nobody walks out. Bloomberg adds that August had about one open job per unemployed worker, down from 2 to 1 at the 2022 peak. Is the job market cracking? Not yet.

What Do These Reports Mean for the Fed?

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by a quarter point (25 basis points) on September 16. The policy rate sets the tone for loan and savings rates across the economy. The Fed’s target range now sits at 3.75% to 4.00%, and all 12 voters backed the move. Bloomberg calls it the first hike since 2023.

The Fed’s statement said job gains have kept pace with the workforce and unemployment has changed little. It also called inflation elevated. Low layoffs and low unemployment give the Fed room to focus on prices, Bloomberg reports.

The confidence survey adds a wrinkle. Households feel squeezed by prices, and most expect borrowing costs to rise further. The Fed now weighs a gloomy public mood against inflation that remains elevated.

Three dates matter next. The September jobs report arrives Friday, October 2, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The next JOLTS report follows on November 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the Fed announces its next decision October 28 at 2:00 p.m. ET. Bloomberg reports that key U.S. data in the week of September 28 could strengthen the case for an October hike.

What Do These Reports Mean for USD Traders?

Both reports send a soft-growth message. Weaker confidence can slow spending, and fewer job openings hint that hiring demand is cooling. Slower growth can weigh on the U.S. dollar because it may limit how far the Fed can raise rates.

Low layoffs push the other way. A steady job market keeps the Fed focused on inflation, and higher U.S. rates tend to support the dollar. Traders now weigh a moody consumer against a Fed that keeps its hiking option open.

Economists call survey results like confidence “soft data” because they capture opinions. They call payrolls and layoffs “hard data” because they count real jobs. Households say they feel gloomy, yet layoffs sit near lows. If the October 2 jobs report shows hiring holds up, the dollar may shrug off the September 29 misses. A weak report could shift the spotlight to growth worries.

Confidence surveys and job openings look like two unrelated reports, yet traders lump them together all the time. Premium members can read our lesson:
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