Australia’s labour market came in broadly steady in March, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3% and full-time jobs surging back after a sharp fall in February.

Today’s results kept the door open to another RBA rate hike in May, which sent the Australian dollar higher across the board.

Key Takeaways

  • Australia added 17,900 jobs in March, slightly below the 20,000 consensus but broadly in line with trend
  • The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, matching both forecasts and the prior month’s reading
  • Full-time employment surged 52,500 after a sharp fall in February, while part-time jobs fell 34,600
  • The participation rate dipped 0.1 points to 66.8%, helping keep unemployment steady
  • Hours worked rose 0.5%, pointing to continued labour demand beneath the surface
  • The survey period ran March 1–14, meaning it likely predates the worst of the Iran war’s economic fallout

Australia’s labor market came into this stretch of global uncertainty on solid footing, with employment rising by 17,900 in March and full-time jobs rebounding by 52,500 after February’s drop, signaling firms are still leaning into longer-term hiring.

The unemployment rate held at 4.3% for a third straight month, though a slight dip in participation to 66.8% helped keep it steady, even as total employment hit a record 14.77 million.

Link to official ABS Labour Market Survey (March 2026)

The catch is timing, since the data only covers the first half of March and likely reflects the last clean snapshot before rising oil prices from the Iran conflict began feeding into the economy, with fuel-heavy sectors already feeling the pressure.

For the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the report supports the case for more tightening, as markets price roughly a 59% to 68% chance of a third straight hike on May 5 that could take rates to 4.35%.

Market Reactions

Australian Dollar vs. Major Currencies: 5-min

AUD vs. Major Currencies 5-min Forex

AUD vs. Major Currencies 5-min Forex Chart by TradingView

The Australian dollar traded in tight ranges early on, then edged lower ahead of the jobs release, possibly as traders squared up into the event. At the print, AUD dipped briefly across the board before snapping higher and rallying through the session.

AUD/USD led the move, holding near four-year highs above 0.7180, and the lack of any meaningful pullback suggests markets saw the steady unemployment rate and strong full-time rebound as enough for the RBA to keep tightening.

The next major test for the Australian dollar is the March CPI report, due in late April ahead of the RBA’s May 5 meeting. Inflation is expected back in the mid-4% range, which could lock in a third hike.

Beyond that, attention likely shifts to how quickly Iran-driven energy costs feed into April jobs data, with some forecasts pointing to unemployment drifting toward 4.9% in the second half of 2026.

Promoted: AUD jumped on jobs data, but the real move came seconds after the headline.

Australia’s steady unemployment and strong full-time rebound kept RBA hike expectations alive, sending AUD higher after a quick dip . In markets like this, timing isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.

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