The trading week has come to a close but our work doesn’t end there, forex folks! Before moving on to grab more pips in the coming week, let’s review the biggest market movers in the past few days.
Euro zone flash headline CPI indicated deflation
- Sept flash headline CPI -0.1% vs. 0.0% consensus
- Aug headline CPI downgraded from 0.2% to 0.1%
- Sept flash core CPI 0.9% as expected
- Aug core CPI downgraded from 1.0% to 0.9%
Just a couple of weeks after the ECB hinted that they’re open to throwing in more stimulus, the euro zone printed its flash CPI readings for September and confirmed that inflation is having trouble staying afloat. The headline CPI for September sank in the negative territory, which is just like saying “We’re gonna need a bigger boat!”
The euro suffered a sharp selloff against its forex rivals upon seeing the weaker-than-expected headline reading, even though the core CPI actually came in line with expectations of a 0.9% gain. EUR/USD dipped to a low of 1.1135, EUR/JPY dipped below the 134.00 handle, and EUR/GBP retreated to the .7360 area during the release mid-week.
Chinese PMI readings eased slowdown fears
- Chinese official manu PMI up from 49.7 to 49.8 vs. 49.7 consensus
- Chinese official non-manu PMI steady at 53.4
- Caixin final manu PMI upgraded from 47.0 to 47.2
- Caixin final services PMI downgraded from 51.5 to 50.5
Comdolls had quite a party when the final Chinese PMI readings were released at the start of this month, as most of the figures showed that the world’s second largest economy isn’t doing as bad as many expected. Either that or forex junkies have set the bar pretty low for these reports.
The Australian dollar advanced against most of its forex peers on Thursday’s Asian session, with the Kiwi trailing not too far behind. AUD/USD popped up to a high of .7085, AUD/JPY rallied to the 85.00 handle, NZD/USD climbed past the .6400 mark, and NZD/JPY jumped to a high of 77.44.
U.S. Sept NFP weighed on 2015 rate hike hopes
- Sept employment up by 142K vs. 201K consensus
- Aug jobs figure downgraded from 173K to 136K
- Jobless rate unchanged at 5.1% as expected
- Average hourly earnings flat instead of showing 0.2% uptick
Capping off the action-filled trading week was the U.S. NFP release, which dashed hopes for a Fed interest rate hike this year. A few days back, most of the testimonies from FOMC officials had been lauding the impressive improvements in the labor market and confirming that the Fed is likely to announce a liftoff before the end of the 2015. So much for that.
With that, the U.S. dollar gave back most of its forex gains for the week, with EUR/USD popping up to the 1.1300 levels, GBP/USD capping off its losing streak and bouncing from the 1.5200 support area, USD/JPY slipping to a low of 118.69, and USD/CHF breaking below .9700.
Do you think these catalysts were enough to spark longer-term forex trends or did they just cause a knee-jerk reaction? Better keep these market themes in mind when planning your trades for next week!