Article Highlights

  • U.S. Jan headline retail sales up by 0.2% vs. 0.1% forecast
  • U.S. Jan core retail sales up by 0.1% vs. 0.0% forecast
  • U.S. import prices fell by 1.1% in Jan vs. estimated 1.4% drop
  • U.S. UoM consumer sentiment index down from 92.0 to 90.7 in Feb
  • Japanese preliminary Q4 2015 GDP at -0.4% vs. -0.3% forecast
Partner Center Find a Broker

Thanks to upbeat retail sales data and a bit of profit-taking, the U.S. dollar was able to rebound against its forex counterparts on Friday.

Major Events:

U.S. data mostly stronger than expected – The January retail sales report printed better than expected results, as it indicated a 0.2% gain for the headline figure versus the projected 0.1% uptick while the core version showed a 0.1% increase instead of staying flat. To top it off, the previous month’s readings were revised from -0.1% to +0.2% for the headline figure and from -0.1% to +0.1% fore the core version.

U.S. import prices showed a 1.1% decline for January, possibly weighing on overall consumer price levels down the line, but this was better than the projected 1.4% slump. However, the UoM consumer sentiment index revealed that Americans aren’t too confident with their economic outlook, as the reading fell to 90.7 from a downgraded 92.0 figure.

More signs of an OPEC compromise  – Are they really ready to cut production this time? Word through the crude oil pipeline is that there is a growing consensus among several oil cartel members to do something to boost prices, with most OPEC nations already reeling from the non-stop drop in profitability.

Last time I checked, Saudi Arabia has clarified that they would agree to trim their production levels only if other non-OPEC nations do so. Venezuela has proposed to freeze new oil production to allow prices to recover for a bit, but other member nations such as Qatar said that they’ll still think about it and meet again this week. Stay tuned.

Major Currency Movers:

CAD – The Loonie had newfound strength on talks of an oil production cut among OPEC nations, as the oil-related currency advanced across the forex board.

USD/CAD tumbled from a high of 1.3962 to a low of 1.3813, CAD/JPY bounced off its previous lows around 79.32 to end at 81.80, EUR/CAD fell to a low of 1.5501, and GBP/CAD tested the 2.0000 handle once more.

JPY – The Japanese yen weakened for another day, as a pickup in risk appetite and profit-taking activity allowed its counterparts to rebound. It didn’t help the yen that Japan’s preliminary Q4 GDP missed expectations.

USD/JPY recovered to the 113.50 minor psychological mark, EUR/JPY bounced off 126.75 to close at 127.46, GBP/JPY climbed to a high of 165.09, and AUD/JPY rallied close to the 81.00 major psychological resistance.

Watch Out For:

  • Tentative: Chinese trade balance (389B CNY expected, 382B CNY previous)
  • Tentative: BOJ Governor Kuroda’s speech in parliament (Watch out for surprise comments since this testimony was just newly scheduled!)
  • 4:30 am GMT: Japanese revised industrial production (upgrade from -1.4% to -1.3% expected)
  • 4:30 am GMT: Japanese tertiary industry activity index (0.1% expected, -0.8% previous)

See more:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Kanye West and Kanye West. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!