Political headlines are back in the spotlight with risk aversion in tow, dragging commodities, equities, and higher-yielding currencies lower in the past few days. Some experts are blaming it on the end of the honeymoon period with the Trump administration as the focus is now shifting to whether the Donald can fulfill his campaign promises or he simply got market hopes up and a YUUUGE letdown is coming.
U.S. stocks chalked up pretty steep declines recently, with the Dow 30 index down for the fifth straight session. The S&P 500 index closed 1.2% lower on Tuesday while the Nasdaq plummeted by 1.8% to post the worst daily drop for these benchmarks in more than a hundred days, sparking some concerns among investors. However, looking at the longer-term charts reveals that the post-election uptrend is still holding so far.
It’s worth noting that these benchmarks are testing their make-or-break points, with analysts keeping close tabs on nearby short-term moving averages as the next potential support areas. A break below these could signal that a bigger drop might be underway.
As for commodities, crude oil and iron ore have tanked recently while gold is picking up steam, likely due to the return in risk aversion.
With markets at crucial inflection points, traders are now turning to the next big event for clues. For many, the upcoming vote on the U.S. healthcare bill could be the moment of truth for the Donald since this would test his resolve and give investors an idea of whether or not the administration can follow-through with promises of tax reform and financial deregulation, among many others.
A victory in the House of Representatives to repeal Obamacare would be a plus for Trump’s leadership, giving market watchers some assurance that they can push for other policy changes in the coming months. This could bring renewed hope for corporate America and possibly allow equities to pare recent losses. On the other hand, a defeat could bring more uncertainty to the mix, along with a Trump Twitter rant.
So far, the U.S. dollar has been trading cautiously amid all these market jitters, which suggests that the outcome of the vote could also have repercussions on currency markets. Do you think we’ll see Trumpcare from here? Don’t be shy to share your comments below!