Heads up, Loonie traders! Canada will be printing its jobs report on Friday, and here’s what market watchers are expecting.
With no other major catalysts on tap that day, this release just might spark strong intraday moves for the Loonie.
Planning on trading the event? Here are the points you need to know first:
How did the previous release turn out?
- Canada added 259.2K jobs in February vs. 98.5K consensus
- Unemployment rate slid from 9.4% to 8.2% vs. 9.2% forecast
- Labor force participation rate held steady at 64.7%
Canada’s February jobs report turned out waaay better than expected, as the economy added 259.2K jobs versus the estimated 98.5K gain. This was enough to bring the jobless rate down to 8.2% – its lowest level since March 2020.
Underlying components of the report also showed plenty of green shoots, with both part-time and full-time hiring picking up as lockdown restrictions were eased in large cities like Ontario and Quebec in early February.
In addition, the participation rate held steady as a sign of improving confidence in job prospects. The labor force underutilization rate even declined 1.8% to its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic last year.
What’s expected this time?
- Employment gains of 90K are expected for March
- Unemployment rate slated to improve from 8.2% to 8.0%
A slower pace of hiring gains is expected for the previous month, but a 90K increase in employment might still be enough to bring the jobless rate down a couple of notches.
The jobs component of the March Ivey PMI due on Wednesday might have some clues on how the actual results could turn out. Analysts are expecting the headline reading to improve from 60.0 to 62.0, which would reflect a faster pace of business expansion.
Another stronger than expected outcome could spur a huge rally for the Loonie, especially since the Bank of Canada is gradually taking steps to reduce its balance sheet.
If you’re trying to decide which currency to trade against the Loonie, check out this MarketMilk™ performance ranking of CAD pairs to help you gauge which might be the strongest bullish or bearish rivals:
Not feeling confident about trading the event at all? That’s okay, you can always stay in the sidelines and observe the Loonie’s reaction to the release.