Major Currencies Overview
The Greenback had another dismal run as it finished second-to-the-last among its forex peers last week, primarily due to resurfacing trade tensions and some risk-taking.
The spotlight turns to the Fed this week as the central bank is widely expected to announce an interest rate hike. But will this be their last one for the year? Read more.
The Loonie was able to draw some support from crude oil and upbeat Canadian data but had to return some gains as NAFTA talks appear to be stalling.
The Canadian monthly GDP is the only major report on deck this week, so the Loonie might keep taking cues from oil and NAFTA developments. Read more.
EUR & CHF
Italy’s political drama and Brexit updates pushed the shared currency around last week while the franc chalked up some losses on SNB jawboning and inflation downgrades.
There’s a handful of medium-tier reports from the euro zone this week, but it’s likely that the attention will still be on Italy and Brexit talks. Any major events to watch out for? Read more.
Pound pairs were slowly grinding higher on Brexit optimism for the most part of the week, but the gains were returned when PM May seemed to bite the bullet during her EU Summit speech.
There are no top-tier reports from the U.K. this week, which means that all eyes and ears will still be on Brexit-related updates as the clock is winding down for the deal “deadline” in October. Read more.
Risk-on vibes from softer-than-expected tariffs by the U.S. and China, as well as Brexit positivity, weighed heavily on the lower-yielding yen last week.
A bunch of medium-tier reports, including CPI and industrial production, are on this week’s docket but it seems that risk sentiment might still be the main driving factor. Read more.
Even though the U.S. and China fired another round of shots in their trade war, the Aussie managed to snag some gains as the tariffs weren’t as harsh as many expected.
There are no major reports due from the Land Down Under this week, which leaves its currency to be pushed around by sentiment and possibly gold prices. Read more.
The Kiwi had a good run in the previous week as it joined risk rallies and got another kick higher from stronger-than-expected quarterly GDP.
The RBNZ is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision mid-week so there might be a bit of volatility prior to the event and during the actual announcement. Read more.
Charts to Watch:
First up is this simple channel pullback on EUR/USD, with price already testing support at the 38.2% Fib around the mid-channel area of interest. A larger correction could take it down to the 61.8% Fib at the channel bottom and former resistance at 1.1700, but stochastic looks ready to pull up from the oversold region.
Next is this NZD/USD double bottom reversal formation and descending trend line break. Price still needs to move past the neckline around .6700 to confirm that an uptrend is in order, but stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and is pointing back down. A retest of the broken trend line might take place before this pair heads any further north.
Lastly here’s a simple break-and-retest situation on the 1-hour chart of USD/CHF. Price has been trending lower but looks prime for a pullback to the area of interest spanned by the 50% to 61.8% Fib levels. However, stochastic might be ready to signal a return in selling pressure, so the 38.2% Fib at the .9600 handle might be enough to keep gains in check.