Major Currencies Overview
The usual slew of geopolitical risks weighed on the dollar for the most part of the week, but an improvement in investor sentiment didn’t help the safe-haven currency either.
Dollar action could be off to an early start with the U.S. retail sales data due today, just ahead of a bunch of medium-tier releases. But as in the previous weeks, risk sentiment and Trump’s tweets could carry more weight. Read more.
Surging oil prices on the heels of escalating tensions in Syria lifted the positively-correlated Loonie for the past few days. That marks its fourth consecutive positive week!
The spotlight could return to Canadian fundamentals with the BOC interest rate decision scheduled mid-week. Here’s what you should expect. Read more.
EUR & CHF
The shared currency was extra sensitive to its counterparts’ price action in the previous week while the franc was tossed around by risk sentiment as well.
Upbeat remarks from a few ECB members did provide some support for the euro, so further hawkishness could keep it afloat even on the lack of major events from the region this week. Read more.
Sterling had a mostly positive finish, falling behind only the Loonie and Aussie for the past week. Hawkish BOE commentary and a bit more Brexit-related clarity encouraged buyers to stick around.
Will we see the same behavior this week? There’s gonna be a lot going for pound pairs as U.K. CPI, jobs data, and retail sales are all lined up! Read more.
AUDIn the absence of major reports from Australia last week, updates from China took center stage and allowed AUD to be one of the better-performing currencies.
The release of the RBA minutes and the latest Australian jobs report could change things up a bit this week as market participants try to get more clues on when the central bank might start tightening. Read more.
The Kiwi earned its place in one of the top spots for the previous week thanks mostly to positive risk factors. Can it extend its streak?
New Zealand is set to print its quarterly CPI report on Thursday’s Asian session, so this could shape RBNZ policy expectations and play a greater role in setting Kiwi direction. Read more.
Charts to Watch:
Time for a pullback on this one? Price has bounced off its descending channel bottom and looks ready for a retest of the broken support around the 108.50 to 109.00 levels, which are near the 38.2% to 50% Fibs and mid-channel area of interest. It’s a battle of safe-havens, fellas!
Here’s another descending channel setup if you’re quite eager to short the dollar. Price is closing in on the 61.8% Fib and channel resistance, which also line up with an area of interest on the daily time frame.
Stochastic has been hovering around overbought territory for quite some time, so sellers could return and push for a move back to the swing low or channel bottom.
If you’re bullish on the dollar, though, you might like this EUR/USD setup better. The pair’s descending triangle is still intact as price just bounced off the resistance and might be setting its sights back on support. Better keep tabs on U.S. retail sales data, a bunch of other medium-tier reports, and of course Trump’s Twitter account if you’re trading this one!