The euro initially surged when positive soft data got released, but lost traction and began to slip as the morning London session progressed. The yen, meanwhile, was under bearish pressure, likely because of the returning risk-on vibes.
Other than that, there was also some wonky price action going on the Swissy, since the Swissy ended up as the best-performing currency of the session, despite the risk-on vibes and Switzerland’s poor trade data.
- Swiss trade balance: CHF 1.97B vs. CHF2.87B expected, CHF 3.04B previous
- German final GDP q/q: unchanged at 0.6% as expected
- French flash services PMI: 58.0 vs. 56.8 expected, 56.7 previous
- French flash manufacturing PMI: 54.0 vs. 55.2 expected, 55.1 previous
- German flash services PMI: 55.2 vs. 55.5 expected, 55.4 previous
- German flash manufacturing PMI: 59.4 vs. 58.0 expected, 58.2 previous
- Euro Zone flash services PMI: 56.2 vs. 56.5 expected, 56.4 previous
- Euro Zone flash manufacturing PMI: 57.0 vs. 56.5 expected, 56.7 previous
- German IFO business climate: 114.6 vs. 113.1 expected, 113.0 previous
- U.K. public sector net borrowing: £9.6B vs. £8.0B expected, £2.3B previous
Positive Euro Zone data
The Euro Zone got a bunch of mostly positive soft data earlier. And noteworthy among these was IFO’s German business climate index in May, since it came in at 114.6, which is significantly better than the expected 113.1, as well as the previous month’s 113.0 reading.
According to commentary from IFO, the 114.6 reading is “the highest figure on record since 1991.” Moreover, “This development in the ifo index combined with other key economic indicators, points to economic growth of 0.6 percent in the second quarter.”
Markit’s PMI report for the Euro Zone is noteworthy as well, even though the readings for the service and manufacturing sectors were mixed.
According to Markit, the flash services PMI reading for the Euro Zone as a whole came in at 56.2 in May. This is a two-month low and missed expectations that the reading will nudge higher from 56.4 to 56.5.
The flash manufacturing PMI for the Euro Zone, meanwhile, improved from 56.7 to 57.0, beating expectations that it would deteriorate to 56.5. Even better, the current reading is a 73-month high. And commentary from Markit attributed the improved reading to “exports rising at the steepest rate since April 2011.”
Commodities were broadly under bearish pressure during today’s morning London session.
Oil benchmarks were leaking red.
- U.S. WTI crude oil was down by 0.35% to $50.95 per barrel
- Brent crude oil was down by 0.33% to $53.69 per barrel
Base metals got hammered.
- Copper was down by 0.48% to $2.583 per pound
- Nickel was down by 0.77% to $9,327.50 per dry metric ton
Precious metals also took hits.
- Gold was down by 0.18% to $1,259.17 per troy ounce
- Silver was down by 0.30% to $17.139 per troy ounce
Aside from profit-taking after commodities started rallying last week, market analysts couldn’t really pinpoint a reason for the broad-based commodities retreat.
The U.S. dollar index was up slightly by 0.08% to 96.96 for the day when the session ended, though. And that may have weighed down on commodities.
Risk-taking in Europe
Risk appetite dominated Europe during today’s session, despite the bombing in Manchester earlier.
- The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.34% to 1,542.64
- Germany’s DAX was up by 0.63% to 12,698.50
- The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.80% to 3,606.50
U.S. equity futures also got bouyed by the risk-on vibes.
- S&P 500 futures were up by 0.18% to 2,397.00
- Nasdaq futures were up by 0.23% to 5,714.88
European equity indices actually opened lower, likely because of the bombing in Manchester. As for the returning risk-on mood, market analysts say that was due to Spanish banks staging a recovery, strong performance of tech stocks, and positive Euro Zone data.
Major Market Mover(s):
The euro jumped higher earlier during the session, thanks to a bunch of mostly positive soft economic reports. The euro later found sellers, though, and closed the session mostly weaker. There were no apparent catalysts for the euro’s later weakness, however.
EUR/USD was down by 6 pips (-0.07%) to 1.1217 with 1.1267 as session high, EUR/NZD was down by 32 pips (-0.20%) to 1.5937 with 1.6035 as session high, EUR/CAD was down by 39 pips (-0.25%) to 1.5106 with 1.5199 as session high
The yen was the worst-performing currency of today’s morning London session, very likely because of the returning risk-on vibes.
USD/JPY was up by 14 pips (+0.13%) to 111.18, CAD/JPY was up by 27 pips (+0.32%) to 82.55, CHF/JPY was up by 33 pips (+0.29%) to 114.43
The Swissy was the best-performing currency of the session, which is a bit wonky, given the risk-friendly environment and the Swissy’s safe-haven status. It gets even weirder because Switzerland’s trade surplus was revealed to have narrowed during the session, and yet the Swissy advanced. The Swissy did have a hard time against the Kiwi, however, and barely edged out a win.
USD/CHF was down by 16 pips (-0.16%) to 0.9724, EUR/CHF was down by 26 pips (-0.24%) to 1.0909, GBP/CHF was down by 24 pips (-0.19%) to 1.2613
Watch Out For:
- 12:30 pm GMT: Canadian wholesale sales (1.1% expected, -0.2% previous)
- 1:00 pm GMT: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak
- 1:45 pm GMT: Markits flash U.S. manufacturing PMI (53.2 expected, 52.8
- previous) and services PMI (53.3 expected, 53.1 previous)
- 2:00 pm GMT: U.S. new home sales (611K expected, 621K previous)
- 7:00 pm GMT: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak (again)
- 9:00 pm GMT: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker is scheduled to speak