Article Highlights

  • German trade balance: €18.5B vs. €19.2B expected, €18.3B previous
  • German WPI m/m: 0.5% vs. 0.3% expected, 0.8% previous
  • French industrial production m/m: -0.3% vs. 0.6% expected, -1.1% previous
  • French manufacturing production m/m: -1.0% vs. 0.5% expected, -0.8% previous
  • U.K. industrial production m/m: -0.4% as expected, 1.1% previous
  • U.K. manufacturing output m/m: -0.9% vs. -0.6% expected, 2.1% previous
  • U.K.’s goods trade balance: -£10.8B expected, -£11.1B expected, -£10.9B previous
  • U.K. construction output m/m: -0.4% vs. -0.3% expected, 1.8% previous
  • U.S. NFP report and Canada’s jobs report coming up
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All was calm in the forex front, as both volatility and directional movement got sapped ahead of the NFP report. The only currency worth noting is the euro, since it was broadly higher against its peers.

Major Events/Reports:

NFP Friday! – Today is another NFP Friday! And as usual, forex traders were hunkering down ahead of the NFP report. As a result, both directional movement and volatility were in short supply on most currency pairs.

By the way, if you’re planning to trade the February NFP report and need to get up to speed on what happened last time and what’s expected this time, then make sure read up on Forex Gump’s Forex Preview here.

While you’re at it, you may wanna read up on Forex Gump’s preview for Canada’s February jobs report as well. You can read that here.

Commodities recover, but precious metals sink lower – Commodities were in recovery mode during today’s morning London session after yesterday’s commodities carnage. Precious metals were noticeable still under pressure, though.

Oil benchmarks recovered after two very painful days.

  • U.S. WTI crude oil was down by 0.71% to $49.63 per barrel
  • Brent crude oil was down by 0.56% to $52.48 per barrel

Base metals were also in recovery mode.

  • Copper was down by 0.54% to $2.594 per pound
  • Zinc was down by 1.01% to $2,713.50 per dry metric ton

Precious metals, however, are still under bearish pressure.

  • Gold was down by 0.49% to 1,197.25 troy ounce
  • Silver was down by 0.72% to 16.913 per troy ounce

Market analysts say that the broad-based recovery in commodity prices was due to profit-taking. And it probably helped that the Greenback was slightly dipping ahead of the NFP report. For reference, the U.S. dollar index was down slightly by 0.09% to 101.89 for the day when the session ended.

Precious metals, meanwhile, didn’t a much needed break, likely because of the risk-on vibes during the session.

Risk appetite finally returns to Europe – After a week plagued by risk aversion, signs of risk-taking finally began to show in Europe, since European equity indices were in the green.

  • The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was up by 0.43% to 1,477.01
  • Germany’s DAX was up by 0.58% to 12,047.75
  • The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 0.72% to 3,434.50

Even U.S. equity futures got some support from the upbeat mood.

  • S&P 500 futures were up by 0.34% to 2,374.25
  • Nasdaq futures were up by 0.30% to 5,383.00

Market analysts point out that banking and energy shares were the main winners, thanks respectively to yesterday’s not-so-dovish ECB presser and the recovery in oil prices.

Major Market Mover(s):

EUR – Despite the risk-on vibes and the NFP report looming over the horizon, the euro was able to score small victories against all its peers. In addition, economic reports for the Euro Zone that were released during the session were actually disappointing. However, market analyst are pointing to yesterday’s ECB presser as one of the main reasons for the risk-on vibes. It’s therefore possible that the ECB presser is also still propping the euro up.

EUR/USD was up by 10 pips (+0.10%) to 1.0604, EUR/JPY was up by 13 pips (+0.11%) to 122.39, EUR/CAD was up by 21 pips (+0.15%) to 1.4323

Watch Out For:

  • 1:30 pm GMT: U.S. non-farm payrolls (185K expected, 227K previous), jobless rate (4.7% expected, 4.8% previous), and average hourly earnings (0.3% expected, 0.1% previous)
  • 1:30 pm GMT: Canadian net employment change (2.5K expected, 48.3K previous), jobless rate (steady at 6.8% expected) and labor force participation rate (steady at 65.9% expected)
  • 3:00 pm GMT: U.K. NIESR GDP estimate (0.7% previous)
  • 7:00 pm GMT: U.S. Federal budget balance (-$175.0B expected, $51.3B previous)

See also:

Asian Session Recap 
U.S. Session Recap

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