Article Highlights

  • U.K. Claimant Count Rate: 2.3% vs. 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
  • U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate: 4.9% vs. 4.9% forecast/previous
  • U.K. Claimant Count Change: 700 vs. 3.2K forecast, 7.1K previous
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Wonky price action during the morning London session, but oil moves and risk aversion sentiment was able to give us some direction in the currency markets.

Major Events/Reports:

U.K. unemployment data – The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on the U.K.’s employment situation shows that the unemployment rate stayed at an 11-year low of 4.9%. It also shows an employment rate of 74.5% and that the average weekly earnings grew by 2.3% in nominal terms.  Overall, the data shows that Brexit’s affect was barely felt at all in the employment market, likely the reason we saw a bump higher in Sterling after the release.

Oil rises – Oil popped higher ahead of today’s EIA crude inventories release, forecasting a decline in inventories, also likely on optimism that the OPEC deal to reduce surplus will become a reality.  We also got word that China’s crude output remains at its lowest levels in years, adding only 0.3% in the last month. This seems to have lifted the Canadian dollar higher, bouncing back after taking a hit in Asian trade.

Signs of risk aversion – European equity indices have taken a slight tumble after yesterday’s positive session, possibly on concerns sparked by China’s Q3 GDP report, especially the miss in industrial production (6.1% vs. 6.4% expected).

  • The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 was down by 0.91% to 1,350.05
  • The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 was down by 0.02% to 3,046.30
  • Germany’s DAX was down by 0.11% to 10,620.23
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.11% to 6,987.00

U.S. equity futures have barely made a move and mixed:

  • S&P 500 futures were up by 0.08% to 2,13.75
  • Nasdaq futures ticked lower by -0.02% to 4,826.25

Crude oil recovers – oil pops higher after a busy morning of news reports and data

  • U.S. crude oil was up by 1.31% to $50.95 per barrel
  • Brent blend crude oil was up by 1.26% to $52.33 per barrel

Major Market Movers:

JPY – Sentiment in the Japanese yen continued from Asia to London trade as it maintained its strength:

USD/JPY was down by 52 pips (-0.51%) to 103.33, EUR/JPY was down by 58 pips (-0.51%) to 113.45, GBP/JPY was down by 67 pips (-0.53%) to 127.00

CAD – The Canadian dollar saw a bounce from its Asia session weakness, likely boosted by the gains we saw in the oil markets during the London morning session:

USD/CAD was down 0.31% to 1.3086 from its Asia session high (1.3128), EUR/CAD was down -0.41% to 1.4363 from its Asia session high (1.4421), AUD/CAD was down -0.22% to 1.0042 from its Asia session high (1.0067)

GBP – The British pound continues to feel the pressure across the board, losing its Asia session gains to bring it near session breakeven levels

GBP/USD was down 4 pips (-0.03%) to 1.2289, GBP/AUD was down 25 pips (-0.14%) to 1.6009, EUR/GBP was up 5 pips (0.06%) to .8930

Watch Out For:

  • 12:30 pm GMT: U.S. Building Permits (1.17M expected, 1.15M previous)
  • 12:30 pm GMT: U.S. Housing Starts (1.18M expected, 1.14M previous)
  • 2:00 pm GMT: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (0.5% expected/previous)
  • 3:00 pm GMT: Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference
  • 3:30 pm GMT: EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2.75M expected, 4.9M previous)
  • 6:00 pm GMT: Federal Reserve Beige Book

See also:

Asian Session Forex Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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