- U.K. CBI Industrial Trends: 0% bal vs. 9% bal forecast, 10% bal previous
The British pound was mostly in the red to start out the week and it didn’t get any better leading up to this morning’s CBI industrial trends data. While there was a bounce among some Sterling pairs ahead of the release, it’s back on the sell button for pound bears with the actual number coming in weak and indicating a consensus between manufacturing executives that conditions are slowing down. The intraday trend to the downside seems to be resuming as we head into the U.S. trading session:
GBP/USD is down 56 pips (-0.38%) to 1.4893, GBP/CHF is down 77 pips (-0.52%) to 1.4499, and GBP/NZD is down 157 pips (-0.80%) to 1.9609
The euro is bouncing higher on the session and with no direct catalysts that I can see at the moment, it could be more lightening up and profit taking on euro positions after the monster downtrend going into the start of ECB QE a couple of weeks again and the FOMC meeting last week. Or it could be rising positive sentiment on recently improving European data. Whatever the case may be, the rally seems to be losing steam at the moment, but it just may be a pause as it’s possible the bounce may continue with U.S. traders coming online:
EUR/USD is up 53 pips (+0.50%) to 1.0867, EUR/JPY is up 52 pips (+0.42%) to 130.29, and EUR/GBP is up 65 pips (+0.91%) to .7292
The forex calendar for the Monday afternoon London/morning U.S. session is typically light with only couple of releases from the U.S. and Europe to start the week for U.S. forex traders.
At 2:00 pm GMT, we’ll get a fresh read on U.S. housing in the form of the monthly existing home sales data. The forecast is for a few ticks higher to 4.94M vs. 4.82M previous, which would continue to be in a downtrend momentum since hitting recent highs around 5.26M last November. This is a mid-tier event, so if we do see a reaction it’ll likely be a short-lived one in the Greenback.
At 3:00 pm GMT, we’ll close out the London trading session with the monthly read on consumer confidence, forecasted for a slight tick better to -6 vs. -6.7. This data point has been on a steady trend higher recently after hitting lows in November 2014 at -12, so another positive read could help today’s rally in the euro, especially with little economic news for forex traders to focus on. Stay frosty!
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