- German Industrial Production m/m: 0.6% vs. 0.5% forecast, 1.0% previous; y/y at 0.9% vs. -0.2% forecast, previous
- French Trade Balance: -3.73B EUR vs. -3B EUR forecast, -3.3B EUR previous
- Swiss CPI y/y: -0.8% vs. -0.6% forecast, -0.5% previous
- European GDP (1st Est.) q/q inline with 0.3% forecast/previous
The euro and British pound both saw pain in the morning London session, likely a reaction from yesterday’s ECB monetary policy announcement & flows into USD ahead of NFP. The selling was steady in both sets of currency pairs, showing that there wasn’t too much reaction to the better-than-expected German Industrial Production and inline European GDP data. The momentum in the euro selloff remains strong as we move into the highly anticipated U.S. jobs data report. EUR/USD is holding steady at 1.0970 after dipping as low as 1.0930, a bounce which may prove to be another opportunity to sell into the intraday downtrend and broad USD strength.
The forex calendar for the Friday afternoon London/morning U.S. session is lined up with the monthly monster U.S. jobs data, likely to spark big moves for the Greenback, as well various mid-tier reports from the U.S. and Canada.
At 1:30 pm GMT, we’ll get job sector updates from the U.S. (NFP: 235K forecast vs. 237K previous) and an expectation for a tick lower in the unemployment rate to 5.6% vs. 5.7% previous.We’ll also get the labour productivity and merchandise trade data from Canada, as well as the U.S. trade balance and building permits data data during the same hour, but the focus is likely to be on the Greenback as the employment data will play a big part on the decision of when the Fed may raise interest rates in the U.S.
And to close out the calendar for the week, we’ll get U.S. consumer credit at 8:00 pm GMT with a forecast read of $14.75B vs. $14.76B previously. This is a low-to-mid tier event, so don’t expect much reaction to the news, especially with the U.S. jobs report to influence price action, probably through the close of the week’s trading. Stay frosty!
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