- European Trade Balance (nsa): 24.3B EUR vs. 20.5B EUR forecast, 21.2B EUR previous
Forex volatility remained low in the morning London session with a light economic calendar and the world waiting for a new Greece bailout deal. We did see a much improved trade balance number from the euro zone, which may have played a part in the euro’s quick boost higher around its release, adding to the recent positive sentiment that Ukrainian ceasefire talks and a potential Greece bailout deal may be having on the euro.
EUR/GBP seems to be a mover on the news, moving higher after the release to hit session highs around .7425, up 37 pips (+0.51%) on the session. Overall, it looks like a good day for euro bulls, albeit a slow grind to the upside on light volume and a bit of cautiousness with Greek bailout negotiations still in play:
EUR/USD is up 25 pips (+0.22%) to 1.1407, EUR/JPY is up 5 pips (+0.05%) to 135.23, and EUR/CAD is up 26 pips (+0.18%) to 1.4197
And without any catalysts that I can see, the EUR/GBP move may be the biggest reason we are seeing weakness in the British pound, along with continued positive sentiment in the Aussie and Kiwi after positive economic data releases for both currencies during the Asia session:
GBP/JPY is down 43 pips (-0.24%) to 182.19, GBP/AUD is down 60 pips (-0.30%) to 1.9759, and GBP/NZD is down 155 pips (-0.76%) to 2.0467
Finally, as previously mentioned, comdolls are rallying higher with the New Zealand dollar leading the way after a very positive retail sales data release during the Asia session. The Kiwi continued its rally higher to be the biggest winner on the session:
NZD/USD is up 77 pips (+1.04%) to .7508, NZD/JPY is up 74 pips (+0.84%) to 89.00, and AUD/NZD is down 40 pips (-0.38%) to 1.0355
The forex calendar for the Monday afternoon London/morning U.S. session is empty with both the U.S. and Canada on bank holidays. We’ll likely continue to see low volatility and a slight upward bias towards risk as the world stands by for a potential deal between Greece and the euro zone. Deal or no deal, whatever the outcome may be it should be a big market moving event for the short-term. The meeting with European finance ministers and Greece will resume at 2:00 pm GMT. Stay frosty!
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