- German Industrial Production m/m: 01.% vs. 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous; y/y at -0.7% vs. -0.3% forecast/previous
- French Trade Balance: -3.45B EUR vs. -3.3B EUR forecast, -3.09B EUR previous
- Swiss Retail Sales y/y: -2.2% vs. -0.6% previous
- U.K. Visible Trade Balance (World): -10.15B GBP vs. -9.1B GBP forecast, -9.28B GBP previous
Typical with every first Friday of the month, London forex price action stays mostly quiet, typical behavior ahead of the highly anticipated and often market moving U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. But we did see directional movement from the Aussie and the Kiwi, continuing its rally sparked in the Asian session by the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes.
Without seeing more dovish remarks than the cautious sentiment that was already expected, forex traders seem to be giving back some of the pressure that was put upon the Aussie and Kiwi after the string of central bank surprise cuts, the RBA cutting most recently. Both currencies are up strongly on the session, with momentum still on their side going into U.S. trade:
AUD/USD is up 64 pips (+0.82%) to .7859, NZD/USD is up 48 pips (+0.67%) to .7435, and AUD/NZD is up 35 pips (+0.34%) to 1.0569
The euro is also seeing broad weakness, likely due to the weaker-than-expected German industrial production numbers and probably on the ongoing developments with the Greece situation to reach an agreement with the rest of Europe for financial support. Combined with the reaction to the RBA meeting minutes, euro vs. comdolls are some of the biggest movers on the session:
EUR/AUD is down 137 pips (-0.93%) to 1.4577, EUR/NZD is down 105 pips (-0.68%) to 1.5407, and EUR/USD is down 18 pips (-0.17%) to 1.1455
The forex calendar for the Friday afternoon London/morning U.S. session is lined up with North American data points with big market moving potential.
At 1:30 pm GMT, we’ll get job sector updates from both Canada (Net Change: 5K forecast vs. -11.3 previous) and the U.S. (NFP: 223K forecast vs. 240K previous). The U.S. jobs numbers tends to be the bigger market mover between the two releases and create fast market risks (e.g., price gaps, slippage, etc.), but the Loonie is no slouch either when it comes to a pick up in volatility off of the Canadian report. It’s best to stay safe and cautious with open order/positions during these event releases.
We’ll also get the Canadian building permits number (5% forecast vs. -13.8% previous) for a fresh read on the housing sector, but its likely it won’t have an effect on the markets with the employment data coming from both the U.S. and Canada at the same time.
And to close out the calendar for the week, we’ll get U.S. consumer credit at 8:00 pm GMT with a forecast read of $15B vs. $14.08B previously. This is a low-to-mid tier event, so don’t expect much reaction to the news, especially with the U.S. jobs report influence price action, probably through the close of the week’s trading. Stay frosty!
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