- European Sentix Indicator: -11.9 vs. -13.8 forecast, -13.7 previous
The only data point of note the morning from the morning London session came in the form of an investor confidence survey from the German economic research company Sentix. It came in slightly better than forecast, but it was still in the negative territory showing that recessionary conditions are still perceived by investors in the region.
The euro wasn’t phased on the release, and as a matter of fact, it seems that buyers were stepping in as soon as the London open. There doesn’t seem to be a direct catalyst for euro strength on the morning, which could possibly be a pullback from oversold conditions after the dovish ECB press conference last week. As of now, the euro is mixed on the session against the majors:
EUR/USD is up 36 pips (+0.29%) to 1.2488, EUR/JPY is down 13 pips (-0.09%) to 142.57, and EUR/GBP is up 12 pips (+0.16%) to .7856
Outside of the euro, the British pound seems to be taking a broad hit on the session, possibly on comments by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who spoke today on doing more to punish bad behavior at banks. There doesn’t seem to be any other potential catalysts, but whatever the case may be, Sterling is moving down against the majors with exception against a weak Greenback off of Friday’s U.S. jobs data release.
GBP/JPY is down 39 pips (-0.22%) to 181.48, GBP/CHF is down 13 pips (-0.09%) to 1.5312, and GBP/NZD is down 78 pips (-0.38%) to 2.0380
The light forex calendar start to the week continues into the first afternoon London/morning U.S. session with only Canadian housing starts data, coming at 1:15 pm GMT. The forecast is for a slight tick higher to 200K vs. 197.3 previous, keeping the data point within its normal range. This is not normally a market mover, but it’s something to watch out for in case we do see the rare big surprise outside of the 190K – 200K range.
Besides that, currency price action will most likely take its cues from broad risk sentiment which seems to be on the rise as Asia and European equity markets close mostly higher, and U.S. equity futures show a positive open. During risk-on sentiment conditions, the tendency is comdolls to rise and the Japanese yen to weaken in the forex markets. Stay frosty!
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