Article Highlights

  • European M3 Money Supply y/y inline with forecasts at 1.3%, above 1.2% previous
  • U.K. Retail Sales y/y headline at 3.7% vs 2.4% forecast; core y/y 4.2% vs. 2.9%
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The big data point to spark volatility for the London session was U.K. retails sales,  but forex traders were also focused on the Kiwi after another positive data point from New Zealand.

It was another positive day for Sterling after today’s better-than-expected read for U.K. retail sales. That yearly number was boosted by last month’s sharp rise over previous and expectations (1.7% vs. 0.5% forecast, -2.0% previous), sparking another day of bullish British pound behavior:

GBP/USD is up 45 pips (+0.27%) to 1.6621, GBP/JPY is up 78 pips (+0.47%) to 169.96, and EUR/GBP is down 28 pips (-0.34%) to .8275.

The New Zealand dollar is also on the move as forex traders continued to buy through the European open after this morning’s better-than-expected trade balance numbers, making the Kiwi the big winner on the session:

EUR/NZD is down 160 pips (-1.01%) to 1.5868, NZD/USD is up 77 pips (+0.91%) to .8665, and NZD/JPY is up 99 pips (+1.14%) to 88.61.

For the afternoon London/morning U.S. session overlap, there are a few mid-to-high tier events from the U.S. to spark further volatility on the session. At 12:30 pm GMT, we’ll get initial claims, Core CPE price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation), and most notably, the third estimate of U.S. GDP.  As important as GDP data points are, a third reading usually isn’t a market mover unless we see a big divergence from expectations. At 2:30 pm GMT, we’ll get U.S. pending home sales with expectations for a read a tick above previous at 0.2%.  Again, not necessarily a market mover unless we get a big surprise read, so it may be up to broad risk sentiment to push markets for the rest of the Thursday session.

See also:

Asian Session Recap

U.S. Session Recap

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