Looking to trade the Loonie this week? You might catch some volatility right around the release of Canada’s jobs report this November 8, 1:30 pm GMT.
Here’s what you should know if you’re planning on catching pips from the event:
What happened last time?
- September employment up 53.7K vs. 11.2K estimate, 81.1K previous
- September jobless rate down from 5.7% to 5.5%
Canada followed through on its strong August employment report by printing an impressive 53.7K increase in hiring for September. This was enough to bring the unemployment rate down from 5.7% to 5.5% for the month.
Components of the September jobs report revealed that the gains were driven mostly by full-time hiring this time, even as the labor force participation rate dipped from 65.8% to 65.7%.
Not surprisingly, the Loonie popped higher across the board when the report was released, and the currency was able to hold on to its gains for the rest of the U.S. session.
What are traders expecting this time?
- October employment to increase by 15.3K
- October jobless rate to stay unchanged at 5.5%
- October participation rate also to hold steady at 65.7%
A slower pace of hiring is expected for October at 15.3K, which could just be enough to maintain the unemployment rate at 5.5%. No change is expected for the labor force participation rate at 65.7% as well.The Ivey PMI for the same month turned out lower than consensus, though, as the reading slipped from 48.7 to 48.2 versus the estimated improvement to 49.3. Underlying data revealed that the employment component was a drag as it fell from 49.6 to 47.2 to reflect contraction.
Also, keep in mind that the BOC just recently made shifted to a more dovish stance so any data disappointments could stoke rate cut expectations.
Still deciding which currency to trade against the Loonie? Check out this MarketMilk™ performance ranking of CAD pairs to help you gauge which might be the strongest bullish or bearish rivals:
Not feeling confident about trading the event at all? That’s okay, you can always stay in the sidelines and observe the Loonie’s reaction to the release.