Heads up, Aussie traders!
The Land Down Under will be releasing its April jobs report on Thursday 1:30 pm GMT, and here’s what you need to know if you’re trading this news event.
What happened last time?
- April employment fell by 30.6K vs. the projected 17.5K gain
- April unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5%
- Full-time employment increased 33.8K, part-time hiring fell 64.4K
The headline jobs figure for April fell waaay below market expectations, as it showed a surprise 30.6K drop instead of the estimated 17.5K increase.However, underlying components of the report revealed that the jobs numbers weren’t all that bad.
For one, full-time hiring actually picked up by 33.8K during the month, suggesting that the part-time employment losses might have been due to the expiry of the JobSeeker stimulus program.
The jobless rate also chalked up an improvement from 5.7% to 5.5% but this was likely due to the drop in labor force participation.
What’s expected this time?
- Employment could recover by 30.5K in May
- Unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.5%
Analysts are hoping to see a 30.5K rebound in hiring for the past month, possibly making up for the earlier employment losses.As in the previous release, Aussie traders will likely pay closer attention to the underlying components more than the headline figures.
Leading indicators have some clues:
- NAB’s business confidence index fell from a downgraded reading of 23 to 20, reflecting weaker optimism
- ANZ’s job ads rose by 7.9% after the earlier 4.8% increase
- AIG’s manufacturing PMI ticked higher to 61.8 to indicate stronger industry expansion, buoyed in part by a pickup in the jobs component
- AIG’s services PMI rose 61.0 to 61.2 in May, with the employment component staying above 50.0 for the month
- AIG’s construction PMI fell to 58.3 in May, but the index for employment set a new record high
By the looks of it, majority of the leading indicators are pointing to much stronger hiring in May, possibly even spurring an upside surprise in the actual numbers.
However, another dismal result could hit the Aussie pretty hard, especially since the RBA is keeping close tabs on employment conditions.
If you’re planning on trading this event, don’t forget to keep tabs on the average volatility of AUD pairs, which could serve as a guide in setting entries and exits.