Heads up, Aussie traders! We’ve got another batch of top-tier economic reports to be released from the Land Down Under this week. Make sure you start prepping for these events early if you’ve got AUD positions open or if you’re just planning to take some Aussie setups.
1. RBA decision (Aug. 1, 5:30 am GMT)
Talk about starting with a bang! The folks over at the Reserve Bank of Australia are gearing up for their monetary policy statement on the very first day of August and may have some surprises up their sleeve.
In their June statement, the RBA decided to keep interest rates on hold at 1.50% and refrained from sounding a tad more hawkish as some had hoped. With that, RBA head honcho Lowe and his fellow policymakers seemed quite happy to sit with the rest of the neutral central banks at that time.
In case you missed it, my Economic Snapshot for Australia summarizes the latest set of data that policymakers might use for their assessment and outlook. There were some hits and misses, particularly when it comes to the main GDP components and inflation.
To be specific, retail sales and business investment are looking promising while trade activity and price levels have been subpar. Then again, these are mostly in line with the central bank’s expectations so they might not make any major changes in rhetoric for the time being.
2. Australian trade balance (Aug. 3, 2:30 am GMT)
Since a huge chunk of Australia’s economic growth comes from its exports, it’s no surprise that the trade balance tends to generate a strong reaction from the Aussie. Not only that, but it also gives traders a preview of how business production could adjust to meet either a pickup or slowdown in demand.Analysts are expecting to see a narrower surplus of 1.77 billion AUD in June compared to the previous 2.47 billion AUD figure. Back in May, exports jumped 9% to reflect strong external demand for Australia’s commodities while imports rose 1% to indicate health domestic demand as well.
A stronger than expected read or another higher gain in exports could lead Aussie bulls to charge since it would mean a positive contribution to GDP growth and a likely pickup in production and business investment down the line. If demand is strong enough, it could could translate to a faster pace in hiring as well!
3. Australian retail sales (Aug. 4, 2:30 am GMT)
Last but definitely not least is the retail sales report for June, which might show a meager 0.2% uptick for June compared to the earlier 0.6% gain. Still, a figure in line with consensus would mark the third consecutive month in positive retail sales figures, which reflects confidence in the consumer sector.
Keep in mind, however, that this particular report is set to be released simultaneously with the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, which usually contains a bit more detail on the data points that influenced the central bank’s rate decision earlier in the week. With that, additional volatility could be expected around this time as market watchers try to figure out what the RBA’s next moves might be.
As I always say, there’s no shame in sitting on the sidelines if you’re not comfortable trading around potentially volatile situations. Just make sure you stay updated on how the announcements or reports turn out so that you can adjust your forex biases and be guided in your next trading decisions. Good luck and be careful out there!