- New Zealand trade surplus widened to 631 million NZD in March
- New Zealand Feb trade balance upgraded from 50 million NZD to 83 million NZD
- New Zealand ANZ business confidence index down from 35.8 to 30.2 this month
- Swiss UBS consumption indicator, German preliminary CPI due
If there’s anything that forex traders learned from the latest trade balance report from New Zealand, it’s that the underlying figures don’t always paint the same picture as the headline numbers. While the March report showed a larger than expected surplus of 631 million NZD, components of the trade balance revealed that exports actually slumped during the month.
Exports from the country were down 2% in March while imports picked up by 4.1% in the same period. Falling shipments of milk powder, butter, and cheese led the declines, as New Zealand reported seven consecutive months of declining export volumes to China. This sparked a fresh wave of downbeat expectations ahead of the RBNZ interest rate statement in the next Asian trading session.
For now, NZD/USD is facing a 12-pip loss (-0.15%) after testing resistance at the .7700 handle while NZD/JPY is lower by 19 pips (-0.21%) just below the 91.50 mark. The Kiwi is also lower against its European forex counterparts, with EUR/NZD up by 30 pips (+0.21%) and GBP/NZD enjoying a 65-pip lead (+0.33%). It didn’t help that the country also reported a decline in its ANZ business confidence index from 35.8 to 30.2 in April.
It’s bound to be a relatively quiet London trading session with only a couple of medium-tier reports on tap. Germany is set to release its preliminary CPI reading for April and possibly show a 0.1% dip in price levels, erasing part of the 0.5% increase seen in the previous month. Meanwhile, Switzerland will report is UBS consumption indicator at 7:00 am GMT.
Pre-FOMC jitters could also push major pairs around, as forex traders might continue reducing their exposure to the dollar ahead of the highly-anticipated economic event. Better start making the necessary adjustments to your open positions as well!
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