Tomorrow at 8:00 pm GMT the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will publish its monetary policy decisions for the month of November.
Think you can grab a few pips from the event? Here are some points that might help you strategize for your trades:
What happened last time?
As expected, acting Governor Grant Spencer and his team kept interest rates at 1.75% for another month in September.
Central bankers believed that Q2 2017’s GDP is in line with expectations after weakening in the last two quarters, and that house price inflation continue to be moderated by loan restrictions, affordability constraints, and tightening credit conditions.
Meanwhile, annual CPI remains “within target range” and “longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at around two percent.”
The most significant changes in the statement had to do with growth and Kiwi’s exchange rate.
Back in August RBNZ noted that
“Growth is expected to improve going forward, supported by accommodative monetary policy, strong population growth, an elevated terms of trade, and the fiscal stimulus outlined in Budget 2017…”
However, it changed its tune to
“Growth is projected to maintain its current pace going forward, supported by accommodative monetary policy, population growth, elevated terms of trade, and fiscal stimulus.”
Luckily for Kiwi bulls, a slight change in tone over growth was eclipsed by a not-so-worried tone over the strength of the New Zealand dollar.
In August RBNZ shared that
“The trade-weighted exchange rate has increased since the May Statement, partly in response to a weaker US dollar. A lower New Zealand dollar is needed to increase tradables inflation and help deliver more balanced growth.”
But in September it changed its tune to
“The trade-weighted exchange rate has eased slightly since the August Statement. A lower New Zealand dollar would help to increase tradables inflation and deliver more balanced growth.”
Not surprisingly, Kiwi bulls partied in the pip streets on the change in RBNZ’s tone. The move didn’t last long, however, as lower commodity prices and overall risk aversion soon gripped Kiwi’s price action.
What are traders expecting this time?
Market players don’t think there will be any policy changes, so RBNZ’s cash rates are estimated to remain at 1.75%.
That doesn’t mean that the event will be a non-mover, though! Here are a couple of issues that could come up during the release:
RBNZ can’t come to the phone right now
Like the old Taylor Swift, RBNZ (or at least its current decision-making format) will soon be dead. See, earlier today New Zealand’s new coalition government officially launched a review of its central bank mandate.We already know that the new head honchos want to include maximum employment in RBNZ’s mandate. But Finance Minister Grant Robertson shared that they might also consider establishing a committee-based decision-making model a la Fed, BOJ, and BOE to replace the current S.O.P. where the Governor makes all the calls.
Robertson admitted that targeting both employment AND inflation could result to lower interest rates, but also assured that he doesn’t expect the proposed changes to have any immediate impact on RBNZ’s policies.
Less concerns over NZD’s levels?
Robertson brought some Kiwi bulls in the pip streets earlier today when he said that there was no plan to include Kiwi’s levels in RBNZ’s new mandates.
And with the latest employment-related reports coming in better than expected AND Kiwi falling by around 5% since the September elections, RBNZ officials can afford to take a chill pill from jawboning. Question is, will they?