Pound traders, huddle up! We’ve got another eventful week comin’ right up as the U.K. gears up to print three top-tier reports. Read up on why each event matters, what happened last time, and what’s expected.
1. U.K. CPI (Aug 15, 9:30 am GMT)
Inflation has been at the front and center of BOE discussions over the past few months as several policymakers are worried that rising price levels could eventually take a huge toll on spending and overall growth. With that, another stronger than expected increase in CPI could fuel BOE tightening expectations.
For the month of June, headline CPI turned out weaker than expected as it slumped from 2.9% to 2.6% instead of holding steady. The core version of the report was also downbeat as it dropped from 2.6% to 2.4%. A rebound is expected for July, with analysts projecting that the headline figure could come in at 2.7% and the core figure could tick up to 2.5%.
2. U.K. Jobs Data (Aug 16, 9:30 am GMT)
The U.K. jobs report also tends to generate a strong reaction from the pound, particularly when it comes to the average earnings index. After all, any sign of growth in wages could ease concerns about weak spending and also contribute to stronger inflation down the line.The claimant count change reading has surpassed expectations for the past three months in a row, so there’s a good chance that the upcoming release could post an upside surprise. Analysts are expecting to see a 7.2K increase in joblessness, larger than the earlier 6K gain.
Meanwhile, the average earnings index is slated to hold steady at 1.8% after falling from 2.1% in the three-month period ending in June. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.5%.
3. U.K. Retail Sales (Aug 17, 9:30 am GMT)
Last but certainly not least is the U.K. July retail sales report, which is expected to show a 0.2% uptick in consumer spending. This would be slower compared to the earlier 0.6% increase, signaling that Brits may be having a tough time sustaining their spending habits given the pickup in prices of basic goods.
A quick review of the previous releases reveals quite an even number of hits and misses over the past six months, so it’s tough to predict how the actual reading might fare. Then again, it’s also worth noting that the dip in price levels for the same month might have encouraged consumers to take advantage of bargains.
There you have it, ladies and gents! Apart from the usual impact of overall market sentiment on pound price action, the U.K. currency could also get pushed and pulled by these major economic reports. If you’re not comfortable trading around event risks, there ain’t no shame in sitting on the sidelines first!