Even though there are no major catalysts for the euro or franc this week, these mid-tier releases are worth keeping tabs on.
After all, leading indicators from the region’s top economies provide good clues on how the top-tier releases might turn out.
ECB head Lagarde’s speeches
- Chairperson Lagarde is scheduled to speak at a virtual event hosted by the Institute for Law and Finance on Jan. 25, 8:45 am GMT
- She is also due to participate in a virtual panel discussion titled “Restoring Economic Growth” at Davos 2021 at 4:15 pm GMT
- Recall that her remarks during last week’s ECB presser were somewhat positive, so more optimism could keep the shared currency afloat
Mid-tier leading indicators
- German IFO business climate index (Jan. 25, 9:00 am GMT) to dip from 92.1 to 91.5 this month
- German GfK consumer climate index (Jan. 27, 7:00 am GMT) to fall from -7.3 to -7.8
- German preliminary CPI (Jan. 28) to slide from 0.5% to 0.4% in January
- French consumer spending (Jan. 29, 6:30 am GMT) to rebound by 20% after earlier 18.9% drop, flash GDP to show 4.1% contraction
- German import prices (Jan. 29, 7:00 am GMT) to print 1.0% increase after earlier 0.5% uptick
- Spanish flash CPI (Jan. 29, 8:00 am GMT) to show 0.6% decline, flash GDP to show 1.5% contraction
Swiss KOF economic barometer (Jan. 29, 8:00 am GMT)
- Index to dip from 104.3 to 102.0 in January to hint at slower economic activity over the next six months
- Reading is based on a composite of 219 indicators, including , consumer confidence, exchange rate, money supply, interest rate spreads, stock market prices, and new orders
Overall market sentiment
- These lower-yielding European currencies tend to benefit from risk-off flows
- Easing political uncertainty in the U.S. and in Italy could prove bullish for the euro
- Traders seeking safe-haven flows but uneasy about buying the dollar ahead of the FOMC decision could prefer CHF or EUR instead
- Moving averages paint a mixed picture of euro pairs, with EUR/JPY and EUR/USD hanging out in bullish territory
- Meanwhile, Stochastic shows EUR/GBP might be in for more gains
- Moving averages suggest that most franc pairs are in for declines, except for CHF/JPY and GBP/CHF
Missed last week’s price action? Check out the EUR & CHF Price Review for Jan. 18 – 22!