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Even though there are no major catalysts for the euro or franc this week, these mid-tier releases are worth keeping tabs on.

After all, leading indicators from the region’s top economies provide good clues on how the top-tier releases might turn out.

ECB head Lagarde’s speeches

  • Chairperson Lagarde is scheduled to speak at a virtual event hosted by the Institute for Law and Finance on Jan. 25, 8:45 am GMT
  • She is also due to participate in a virtual panel discussion titled “Restoring Economic Growth” at Davos 2021 at 4:15 pm GMT
  • Recall that her remarks during last week’s ECB presser were somewhat positive, so more optimism could keep the shared currency afloat

Mid-tier leading indicators

  • German IFO business climate index (Jan. 25, 9:00 am GMT) to dip from 92.1 to 91.5 this month
  • German GfK consumer climate index (Jan. 27, 7:00 am  GMT) to fall from -7.3 to -7.8
  • German preliminary CPI (Jan. 28) to slide from 0.5% to 0.4% in January
  • French consumer spending (Jan. 29, 6:30 am GMT) to rebound by 20% after earlier 18.9% drop, flash GDP to show 4.1% contraction
  • German import prices (Jan. 29, 7:00 am GMT) to print 1.0% increase after earlier 0.5% uptick
  • Spanish flash CPI (Jan. 29, 8:00 am GMT) to show 0.6% decline, flash GDP to show 1.5% contraction

Swiss KOF economic barometer (Jan. 29, 8:00 am GMT)

  • Index to dip from 104.3 to 102.0 in January to hint at slower economic activity over the next six months
  • Reading is based on a composite of 219 indicators, including , consumer confidence, exchange rate, money supply, interest rate spreads, stock market prices, and new orders

Overall market sentiment

  • These lower-yielding European currencies tend to benefit from risk-off flows
  • Easing political uncertainty in the U.S. and in Italy could prove bullish for the euro
  • Traders seeking safe-haven flows but uneasy about buying the dollar ahead of the FOMC decision could prefer CHF or EUR instead

Technical Snapshot

  • Moving averages paint a mixed picture of euro pairs, with EUR/JPY and EUR/USD hanging out in bullish territory
EUR Forex Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs Moving Averages from MarketMilk
  • Meanwhile, Stochastic shows EUR/GBP might be in for more gains
EUR Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
EUR Forex Pairs Stochastic from MarketMilk
  • Moving averages suggest that most franc pairs are in for declines, except for CHF/JPY and GBP/CHF
CHF Forex Pairs Trend Strength from MarketMilk
CHF Forex Pairs Trend Strength from MarketMilk

Missed last week’s price action? Check out the EUR & CHF Price Review for Jan. 18 – 22!