For today’s watchlist, we’ve got a simple triangle setup on GBP/AUD with potential catalysts from both Australia and the U.K. just ahead.
Intermarket Snapshot
| Equity Markets | Bond Yields | Commodities & Crypto |
| DAX: 11859.67 -0.87% FTSE: 7415.77 -0.48% S&P 500: 2879.86 -0.55% DJIA: 26130.39 -0.80% |
US 10-yr 2.493% -0.026 Bund 10-YR -0.011% -0.013 UK 10-YR: 1.104% -0.012 JPN 10-YR: -0.045% -0.008 |
Oil: 64.16 -0.37% Gold: 1309.10 +0.55% Bitcoin: 5212.29 -1.18% Etherium: 177.90 -1.53% |
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- IMF cuts 2019 growth outlook again, says risks are ‘skewed to the downside’
- EU-U.S. Trade War Escalates Over Disputed Aviation Subsidies
- China wants to ban bitcoin mining
- March U.S. small business optimism stalls on weak outlook for economic growth
- Europe slams ‘exaggerated’ US tariff threat and prepares to retaliate
- Theresa May seeks Brexit delay from Merkel and Macron
- Any Brexit delay depends on May request – EU’s Barnier
- Australian mortgage rebound a positive sign for home prices
- The Swiss unemployment rate dropped to 2.5% in March from 2.7% in the previous month
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- Fed Quarles speaks in Arlington at 10:00 pm GMT
- Fed Clarida speaks in Minneapolis at 11:45 pm GMT
- Japan bank lending data at 12:50 am GMT (Apr. 10)
- Japan key machinery orders at 12:50 am GMT (Apr. 10)
- Japan PPI at 12:50 am GMT (Apr. 10)
- Australia Westpac consumer sentiment at 1:30 am GMT (Apr. 10)
- U.K. monthly GDP at 9:30 am GMT (Apr. 10)
- U.K. manufacturing production am GMT (Apr. 10)
- European Central Bank monetary policy statement at 12:45 pm am GMT (Apr. 10)
What to Watch: GBP/AUD
A much busier calendar ahead for forex traders to chew on, including a potentially volatile ECB monetary policy meeting and statement. But we’re gonna stay away from that event for now and focus on GBP/AUD. From Australia, we’ve got Westpac consumer sentiment data to potentially get the Aussie dollar jumping, and from the U.K., we’ll see an update on GDP and manufacturing production to likely get Sterling. Of course, that’s on top of any fresh Brexit developments that seem to always be around the corner. All together, there’s a high probability of movement for GBP/AUD within the next session or two, so let’s take a look at the price action.
We can see on the one hour chart of GBP/AUD above that the pair has been consolidating into a descending triangle pattern. Odds are that price action traders are looking for a solid break of the support area (1.8300) to go short, and if you’re a bear, you may want to consider this if Australian consumer sentiment surprises with a positive read and U.K. GDP / manufacturing data disappoints. If you’re a bull, a break above the falling ‘highs’ should put this pair on your watchlist if Aussie consumer sentiment disappoints while U.K. data surprises to the upside.
Keep in mind that this pair is a highly volatile one with an daily average true range of around 180 – 190 pips. Adjust stops accordingly, and a break lower could send the pair to 1.8100, while the upside target could around last week’s swing high around the major psychological level of 1.8500–both reachable in the next few sessions if the fundamental catalysts line up.