Slow start this week with a lack of top tier news or data catalysts, so we’re sticking with a range setup on USD/CAD for potential short-term pips.
|Equity Markets||Bond Yields||Commodities & Crypto|
|DAX: 11961.97 -0.40%
FTSE: 7456.40 0.13%
S&P500: 28883.52 -0.32%
DJIA: 26270.89 -0.58%
|US 10-yr 2.502% +0.003
Bund 10-YR 0.003% -0.001
UK 10-YR: 1.104% -0.013
JPN 10-YR: -0.045% -0.013
|Oil: 63.86 +1.24%
Gold: 1306.00 +0.80%
Bitcoin: 5193.54 -0.17%
Etherium: 177.62 +2.00%
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- Oil climbs to five-month high on OPEC cuts, U.S. sanctions and Libya fighting
- Canadian housing starts jump 15.8% in March -CMHC
- Value of Canada building permits down 5.7 percent in February
- German trade slowed in February
- Sentix investor confidendce -0.3 vs. -2.2 previous
- Japan’s current account surplus jumped 25% in February on lower oil prices
- Japan’s consumer confidence index (seasonally adjusted series) in March 2019 was 40.5, down 1.0 points from the previous month
- Australian jobs ads are falling at the fastest pace in over 5 years
- The Game Is On For Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple And Litecoin
What to Watch: USD/CAD
Looking at the markets this morning, it’s safe to say that there are any obvious setups jumping out at us. No major catalysts and directional biases look pretty weak at the moment. The dollar is look kinda weak at the moment, and with fresh housing data and oil strength on the session, USD/CAD looks like our best bet for any kind of volatility to trade off of for today’s session.
The short-term bear case for the session is if traders focus on the continued rally in oil markets and price that into USD/CAD (they are two closely correlated markets because Canada is a top oil exporter and oil is priced in dollars). Right now we’ve already see some downward momentum from the minor area of interest around 1.3370. If the pair can get back up there, then a short looks interesting as the potential R:R looks favorable using the previous swing high around 1.3400 as the stop area and the previous swing low around 1.3300 as the target. With a daily ATR of roughly 70 pips, this looks like a trade that could reach an exit within a session or two.
For the bulls, the 1.3300 handle should go on the watchlist. There is a bearish undertone to the Loonie these days with an argument for lower rates to stimulate the current economic soft patch. The 1.3250 – 1.3300 area has been a strong support area recently and if it hits that area today it would be an extreme move on the shorter-term time frames, so it’s likely to draw in technical traders short-term. Also, on the longer-term time frames, this pair is in a slow grind higher so position traders could be drawn into this area as well.