With the latest U.S. employment update right around the corner, EUR/USD goes on the watchlist for a potential short-term setup.
|Equity Markets||Bond Yields||Commodities & Crypto|
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FTSE: 7393.67 -0.33%
S&P500: 2880.37 +0.24%
DJIA: 26357.02 +0.53%
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Bund 10-YR -0.002% UNCH
UK 10-YR: 1.091% -0.008
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- Germany Suffers Double Blow on Factory Slump, Downgrade
- ECB debated risk of low rates for too long: accounts
- US weekly jobless claims drop to the lowest level since 1969
- March 2019 Job Cuts Report: 60,587 Cuts Add To Highest Quarterly Total Since Q3 2015
- U.S. sets 2025 target for China to fulfill trade pledges: Bloomberg
- UK narrowly votes to delay Brexit again — but the EU could refuse
- Britain faces a long delay to Brexit, Hammond says – ITV
- Brexit: Angela Merkel to meet Leo Varadkar in Dublin
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- Fed’s Mester speaks in Columbus at 6:00 pm GMT
- Fed’s Harker speaks in Philadelphia at 6:00 pm GMT
- Australia AIG construction PMI at 10:30 pm GMT
- Japan leading indicators at 6:00 am GMT (Apr. 5)
- U.S. employment update at 1:30 pm GMT (Apr. 5)
- Canadian employment update at 1:30 pm GMT (Apr. 5)
What to Watch: EUR/USD
It’s time for another round of U.S. employment data, coming tomorrow to rock U.S. dollar traders into the weekend. And in case you haven’t caught up on your homework for the event, check out Forex Gump’s preview on there event here. In short, it’s a toss up with ISM indicating improvement while the ADP non-farm number disappointed this past week. The ADP number has been pretty good and indicating a hit or miss from expectations, so I’m going with those odds at the moment.
This means a potential disappointment tomorrow, and if the Greenback sells off then that puts EUR/USD in a favorable position to play the longer-term downtrend for both short-term and longer-term pips.
On the one hour chart above, we can see that the 1.1250 – 1.1275 area is the Fibonacci retracement area of the latest swing lower. Bears could be watching this area to jump in as long as the U.S. jobs number are so bad that it shifts broad U.S. sentiment. And if the jobs number surprise above the 175K expectations, it’s possible we could see a break of the 1.1184 lows, and something that should be watched out for, especially if it can hold lower.
For the bulls, watch out for a disappointing number and if the market can break above the 1.1250 – 1.1275 area and hold, then a long play should be interesting, especially if we see downward revisions to previous numbers and if average hourly wages disappoints as well. This is a top tier event so remember to keep your risk small!