With top tier catalysts coming for both the Aussie and Greenback, the consolidation pattern on AUD/USD and potential breakout scenarios goes on the watchlist today.
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Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- May to write to EU’s Tusk on Brexit extension Tuesday
- Oil’s Rally Stuck Near $59 as U.S.-China Trade Jitters Return
- UK inflation ticks up, house prices in London fall by most since 2009
- U.K. manufacturing output growth in the quarter to March was at its weakest since May 2018 – CBI
- German Producer prices in February 2019: +2.6% on February 2018
- Australia’s falling home prices not yet a threat to banks: RBA
- NZ’s current account deficit slightly narrower than expected in December quarter
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- FOMC interest rate decision at 6:00 pm GMT
- New Zealand quarterly GDP at 9:45 pm GMT
- Australia employment at 12:30 am GMT (Mar. 21)
- Swiss National Bank monetary policy statement at 8:30 am GMT (Mar. 21)
- U.K. retail sales at 9:30 am GMT (Mar. 21)
- Bank of England monetary policy statement at 12:00 pm GMT (Mar. 21)
What to Watch: AUD/USD
Today’s economic calendar is straight up stacked with top tier catalysts, so it was a little bit tough to choose just one pair and a couple of setups. But for today, we’re taking a look at AUD/USD with the upcoming Australian jobs report to potentially move the Aussie, while the upcoming FOMC monetary policy meeting is highly likely to move the Greenback. Sterling is actually the currency with the biggest market moving potential, but the Brexit situation is something you’d have to be tied to your trading platform to trade well as developments have been quick to pop up and shift recently. That’s not really our thing so we’re going to avoid that, but if you’re a very short-term trader, you may wanna check the pound out.
On the one hour chart above, we can see that the pair has been in a slight bull biased consolidation pattern, trading mostly between 0.7040 – 0.7100 over the last ten days. Today’s events could wake up AUD/USD traders, and for the bulls, you should be on the look out for a dovish Fed later plus positive Australian jobs report. If that sparks a break above the consolidation area, look for long opportunities if the market pulls back to the range highs around 0.7100.
For the bears, a surprisingly not-so-dovish Fed and weaker Aussie jobs data will likely put traders back into the mood to play the longer-term downtrend, which would make the area around the 50% – 61% Fibs one to watch for reversal patterns, or a break below the bottom of the consolidation area around 0.7050.
Current expectations are for a dovish Fed and a slower pace of job growth in Australia, which could mean choppiness and sideways trading ahead for AUD/USD. In this scenario, the longer-term downtrend is likely to stay the course, making the Fibs up to 0.7200 an appealing sell area for trader for now.