For those looking away from the Brexit drama for FX opportunities, this solid range on AUD/CAD may be watchlist worthy for the next session or two.
|Equity Markets||Bond Yields||Commodities & Crypto|
|DAX: 11525.34 +0.01%
FTSE: 7161.86 +0.15%
S&P500: 2806.32 +0.53%
DJIA: 25686.36 +0.52%
|US 10-yr 2.614% +0.009
Bund 10-YR 0.066% +0.007
UK 10-YR: 1.191% +0.027
JPN 10-YR: -0.045% -0.015
|Oil: 57.79 1.62%
Gold: 1309.20 +0.86%
Bitcoin: 3860.01 -0.04%
Etherium: 131.83 -0.74%
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic data:
- Brexit crisis deepens as lawmakers to vote on no-deal exit
- U.S. producer prices rise less than expected in February
- Industrial production up by 1.4% in euro area
- Oil up on reduced US output estimate, stalled Venezuelan exports
- Japan Jan core machinery orders down 5.4 pct month/month
- Japan January tertiary industry index +0.4% vs -0.3% m/m expected
- Souring consumer mood in Australia may prompt RBA rate cut soon
- New Zealand food prices increased 0.4% in February 2019. After seasonal adjustment, they rose 0.7%
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Forex Calendar:
- EIA Crude oil inventories data at 2:30 pm GMT
- U.K. Parliament votes on no-deal Brexit (tentative)
- Australia MI inflation expectations at 12:00 am GMT (Mar. 14)
- Chinese industrial production and retail sales at 2:00 am GMT (Mar. 14)
- Chinese fixed asset investment at 2:00 am GMT (Mar. 14)
- German CPI at 7:00 am GMT (Mar. 14)
What to Watch: AUD/CAD
Today, we’re checking out AUD/CAD after traders once again fail to break above a major resistance area. On the one hour chart above, we can see that 0.9475 has held like a champ going back all the way to the beginning of February, and yesterday was no different as pressure returned to the Aussie after another weak consumer sentiment update came from Westpac Bank.
This move lower in AUD/CAD definitely has momentum, and it could continue with the help of a couple of reports coming very soon. First, the EIA will soon release it’s weekly crude oil inventories report, which tends to influence oil prices in the short-term. Because oil is one of Canada’s top exports, a move in oil could translate into a move in the Loonie in the short-term. Second, we’ve got important economic updates from China (retail sales and industrial production) that could influence the Aussie higher or lower because of the close trading relationship between Australia and China.
If the crude oil inventories comes in below expectations, look for a possible upside move in oil, which has already been on the upswing this week on Venezuelan headlines and an expected drop in inventories; this could be bullish for the Loonie. And if Chinese data disappoints, that could add further fuel to AUD/CAD bears to take the pair lower, and the retest recent support area around 0.9385 and 0.9320. With a daily ATR of around 60 to 70 pips, if the data comes out in favor of the bears, these areas have a good chance of being retested within the next session or two.
For the bulls, a combination of rising oil inventories and strong Chinese data updates may be needed for AUD/CAD to rally and break that strong resistance at 0.9475. We would consider going long until the market can get above there without a catalyst.